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Sam Badawi
@Sam_Badawi
Stock analyst & creator. Interviews + deep dives on stocks, fundamentals & AI. Origins of Alpha + Quarterly Conviction on YouTube | Beta opens Dec 1 ⤵️
698 Following    56.7K Followers
No one is ready for what's about to come. Absolutely no one.
NEW: Ring unveils new patrol drone and robot to surveil homes and businesses by flying room to room. The drone is able to fly back to its charging station on its own after patrolling around the home. Here are some more details on the drone and robot: - Patrol drone costs $250. - Patrol rover costs $1000. - The drone can fly for up to 8 minutes at a time. - The drone has 148-degree peripheral vision and can quickly rotate 360 degrees to identify threats. - Both require a subscription fee of $5 per month. "For years, customers told us they wanted eyes in the places a fixed camera couldn’t reach, and peace of mind in the spots they’d never want one," said Ring founder Jamie Siminoff. "The honest answer wasn’t more cameras; it meant reimagining what a security device could be. That kind of invention is hard, and it takes time." "But we kept at it until we got it right and that’s Ring Robotics. It’s not just a new category of security; it’s the beginning of a future where proactive, autonomous protection is something every home and every business can have."
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Anthropic $ANT bankers are preparing to raise the IPO valuation to $1.5T or more, according to the FT.
The usual volatility after a data center print CoreWeave $CRWV earnings after hours, from 7% up to 3% down and back 5% up. Wild
CoreWeave $CRWV rose as much as 7% after hours after reporting a $132.5B revenue backlog, up from $104B last quarter. Net premium is a positive +$2.4M, but at only +0.3σ it's an ordinary reading for a Tuesday, so buying wasn't unusually aggressive going into the print.
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CoreWeave $CRWV is guiding Q4 interest expense to $1.05B to $1.15B, up from the $860M to $940M it guided for Q3. 2026 capex guidance is $37B to $39B as it deploys infrastructure sooner than planned. On the funding side, management expects about $9B in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.
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CoreWeave - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $CRWV $51.34 [+6.50% AH] ✅ Revenue: $3.7B (Est: $3.5B) [+168% YoY] ✅ EPS: -$1.27 (Est: -$1.46), GAAP, year-ago -$0.22 Additional Metrics: Adjusted EBITDA: $2.3B [+169% YoY] Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 62% Operating Income: $207M [+298% YoY] Operating Margin: 6% Adjusted Operating Income: $379M [+75% YoY] Adjusted Operating Margin: 10% Net Loss: $709M (year-ago $110M) Adjusted Net Loss: $529M (year-ago $41M) Interest Expense, Net: $846M [+173% YoY] Revenue Backlog: $132.5B Active Power: over 1.7 GW Contracted Power: over 4.6 GW Cash and Cash Equivalents: $4.1B FY2026 Guidance: Revenue: $13.0B to $13.3B (Prior: $12.4B to $13.2B) Adjusted Operating Income: $1.275B to $1.375B (Prior: $960M to $1.15B) Capital Expenditures: $37B to $39B (Prior: $35B to $39B) Active Power at Year-End: more than 1.85 GW Annualized Run-Rate Revenue Exiting 2026: $20B to $21B, raised Q4 Interest Expense: $1.05B to $1.15B Customer Prepayments and Deposits: about $9B expected over the next three months
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CoreWeave $CRWV ended Q3 with a revenue backlog of $132.5B, up from about $104B in Q2 and $55.6B a year ago. That is +27% in one quarter and +138% in a year, and about $28.5B was added in Q3 alone. Backlog is about 36x Q3 revenue of $3.66B. It is contracted revenue that still has to be delivered.
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CoreWeave - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $CRWV $51.34 [+6.50% AH] ✅ Revenue: $3.7B (Est: $3.5B) [+168% YoY] ✅ EPS: -$1.27 (Est: -$1.46), GAAP, year-ago -$0.22 Additional Metrics: Adjusted EBITDA: $2.3B [+169% YoY] Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 62% Operating Income: $207M [+298% YoY] Operating Margin: 6% Adjusted Operating Income: $379M [+75% YoY] Adjusted Operating Margin: 10% Net Loss: $709M (year-ago $110M) Adjusted Net Loss: $529M (year-ago $41M) Interest Expense, Net: $846M [+173% YoY] Revenue Backlog: $132.5B Active Power: over 1.7 GW Contracted Power: over 4.6 GW Cash and Cash Equivalents: $4.1B FY2026 Guidance: Revenue: $13.0B to $13.3B (Prior: $12.4B to $13.2B) Adjusted Operating Income: $1.275B to $1.375B (Prior: $960M to $1.15B) Capital Expenditures: $37B to $39B (Prior: $35B to $39B) Active Power at Year-End: more than 1.85 GW Annualized Run-Rate Revenue Exiting 2026: $20B to $21B, raised Q4 Interest Expense: $1.05B to $1.15B Customer Prepayments and Deposits: about $9B expected over the next three months
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Rigetti Computing - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $RGTI $11.38 [-6.50% AH] ❌ Revenue: $1.4M (Est: $3.9M) [-28% YoY] ❌ EPS: -$0.06 (Est: -$0.05), GAAP -$0.08 Additional Metrics: Gross Margin: 61% Operating Loss: $33.2M (year-ago loss: $20.5M) Net Loss: $20.5M non-GAAP (year-ago loss: $10.7M), GAAP $3.1M includes a $25.3M warrant fair-value gain 9M Revenue: $10.9M [+110% YoY] 9M Operating Cash Flow: -$49.1M 9M Capex: $42.6M Cash and Investments: $497.1M, no debt FY2026 Guidance: Revenue: about $20M
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Firefly Aerospace - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $FLY $23.40 [-1.30% AH] ✅ Revenue: $110.7M (Est: $106.3M) [+259% YoY] ✅ EPS: -$0.45 (Est: -$0.49), non-GAAP, GAAP -$0.56 Additional Metrics: Gross Profit: $25.3M [+198% YoY] Gross Margin: 23% Operating Loss: -$101.6M (year ago -$62.2M) Net Loss: -$94.2M (year ago -$133.4M) Adjusted EBITDA: -$69.5M (year ago -$46.3M) Operating Cash Flow: -$69.7M Free Cash Flow: -$85.3M Cash and Short-Term Investments: $534.7M Backlog: $1.7B (prior quarter $1.5B) FY2026 Guidance: ✅ Revenue: $440-450M (Est: $440M) (Prior: $420-450M)
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Silicon Labs - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $SLAB $221.61 [Flat AH] ✅ Revenue: $251M (Est: $242M) [+22% YoY] ✅ EPS: $1.05 (Est: $0.85) [+228% YoY], non-GAAP, GAAP EPS $0.26 (year-ago loss -$0.30) Additional Metrics: Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 61.0% Non-GAAP Operating Income: $40M Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: $113M GAAP Operating Income: $8M GAAP Net Income: $8.9M (year-ago loss -$9.9M) Revenue Growth: +10% QoQ Medical Revenue: record, +48% QoQ, more than +300% YoY Cash and Equivalents: $423.0M Segment Revenue: Industrial & Commercial: $141M [+20% YoY] Home & Life: $110M [+24% YoY]
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CoreWeave - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $CRWV $51.34 [+6.50% AH] ✅ Revenue: $3.7B (Est: $3.5B) [+168% YoY] ✅ EPS: -$1.27 (Est: -$1.46), GAAP, year-ago -$0.22 Additional Metrics: Adjusted EBITDA: $2.3B [+169% YoY] Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 62% Operating Income: $207M [+298% YoY] Operating Margin: 6% Adjusted Operating Income: $379M [+75% YoY] Adjusted Operating Margin: 10% Net Loss: $709M (year-ago $110M) Adjusted Net Loss: $529M (year-ago $41M) Interest Expense, Net: $846M [+173% YoY] Revenue Backlog: $132.5B Active Power: over 1.7 GW Contracted Power: over 4.6 GW Cash and Cash Equivalents: $4.1B FY2026 Guidance: Revenue: $13.0B to $13.3B (Prior: $12.4B to $13.2B) Adjusted Operating Income: $1.275B to $1.375B (Prior: $960M to $1.15B) Capital Expenditures: $37B to $39B (Prior: $35B to $39B) Active Power at Year-End: more than 1.85 GW Annualized Run-Rate Revenue Exiting 2026: $20B to $21B, raised Q4 Interest Expense: $1.05B to $1.15B Customer Prepayments and Deposits: about $9B expected over the next three months
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Market dislocation from reality -53%. Slow DCAs in full effect on Nebius $NBIS.
Nebius $NBIS says it has a gigawatt worth of Nvidia's $NVDA Vera Rubin coming next year. Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky says there is already significant demand for them. He says it used to come mostly from model builders, but now the broader market is asking too.
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Nebius $NBIS says it has a gigawatt worth of Nvidia's $NVDA Vera Rubin coming next year. Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky says there is already significant demand for them. He says it used to come mostly from model builders, but now the broader market is asking too.
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Market update for Nov 9 is up. Tech ripped higher. The Nasdaq finished up 3% and the S&P 500 up 2%, with oil down 4%. Nvidia $NVDA did not join in. It opened down 8% and closed down 4%, while AMD $AMD jumped 13%, Broadcom $AVGO 9% and Constellation Energy $CEG 11%. Also in the note: Trade Desk, Rocket Lab and Hims earnings, CPI tomorrow, and where my portfolio stands. Free, with a follow along PDF:
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Goldman Sachs $GS expects Anthropic $ANT revenue to exceed $600B by 2030, according to the FT. That would be a 130x jump in sales. It also sees Anthropic turning cash flow positive by the end of the decade.
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WhiteFiber - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $WYFI $9.21 [-3.76%] ❌ Revenue: $24.0M (Est: $29.2M) [+19% YoY] ❌ EPS: -$2.44 (Est: -$0.36), GAAP, includes $80.8M induced conversion expense Additional Metrics: Gross Margin: 56.9%, excluding D&A Operating Loss: $12.4M (year-ago $14.5M) Operating Margin: -51.6% Net Loss: $101.4M (year-ago $15.8M) Adjusted EBITDA: -$24K (year-ago $2.3M) Deferred Revenue: $306.0M Remaining Performance Obligations: $729.0M Segment Revenue: Cloud Services: $18.1M [+0.4% YoY], includes about $3.4M termination fees Colocation: $5.6M [+232% YoY] Other: $294K [-35% YoY] Guidance: Annualized Cloud Revenue Target: about $365M by mid-2027
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Venture Global - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $VG $[PRICE] [+4.25%] ✅ Revenue: $4.8B (Est: $4.6B) [+43% YoY] ✅ EPS: $0.96 (Est: $0.50), GAAP diluted Additional Metrics: Income from Operations: $2.3B [+74% YoY] Operating Margin: 48% Net Income: $2.5B [+493% YoY] Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA: $2.6B [+69% YoY] LNG Cargos Exported: 124 [+24% YoY] LNG Volumes Sold: 465.8 TBtu [+25% YoY] Cash and Cash Equivalents: $3.4B 2026 Cargos Contracted: 99% of available, at $6.46/MMBtu FY2026 Guidance: ✅ Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA: $10.0-10.3B (Est: $9.3B) (Prior: $8.7-9.1B) Cargos Exported: 509-518 (Prior: 500-518)
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The volatility of Anthropic $ANT pre-IPO is insane. Went from $1.75T intraday to down almost as much as $1.6T in a matter of a few hours.
Anthropic $ANT says Google $GOOGL, Nvidia $NVDA, AMD $AMD, Broadcom $AVGO, Micron $MU, Microsoft $MSFT and TSMC $TSM will invest $26B through a private placement at the IPO price. Cornerstone investors will sell 23M shares in the IPO.
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Anthropic $ANT aims to raise up to $69.3B in its IPO through a primary offering of 867M Class A shares at $70-80.
Why is Hims & Hers $HIMS down after earnings? Well first of all that was a LOT of red in terms of misses. Second here is the problem. Gross margin collapsed to 57% from 74%, turning a $16M profit into a $33M loss. Then they cut full year adjusted EBITDA guidance by 11% and guided Q4 revenue well below the Street.
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Hims & Hers - FY2026 Q3 Earnings $HIMS $21.69 [-5.60% AH] ❌ Revenue: $890.4M (Est: $893.4M) [+49% YoY] ❌ EPS: $0.03 (Est: $0.07), adjusted, my calc, GAAP EPS -$0.14 Additional Metrics: ✅ Adjusted EBITDA: $82.4M (Est: $82.2M) [+5% YoY] Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 9.3%, year-ago 13.1% Gross Margin: 57%, year-ago 74% Adjusted Net Income: $6.5M [-68% YoY] GAAP Net Loss: $33.0M, year-ago income $15.8M Subscribers: 2.79M [+13% YoY] Monthly Revenue per Average Subscriber: $105 [+30% YoY] Operating Cash Flow: $65.4M [-56% YoY] Free Cash Flow: $26.0M [-67% YoY] Cash and Short-Term Investments: $712.2M Geographic Revenue: United States: $657.1M [+21% YoY] Rest of World: $233.3M [+321% YoY] Q4 2026 Guidance: ❌ Revenue: $875-895M (Est: $961.2M) ❌ Adjusted EBITDA: $70-90M (Est: $103.9M) FY2026 Guidance: ❌ Revenue: $3.13-3.15B (Est: $3.22B) (Prior: $3.1-3.3B) ✅ Adjusted EBITDA: $257-277M (Est: $264.5M) (Prior: $275-325M)
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Anthropic $ANT aims to raise up to $69.3B in its IPO through a primary offering of 867M Class A shares at $70-80.
After-hours moves after earnings (Mon, Nov 9) Biggest gains: Take-Two $TTWO +4% The Trade Desk $TTD +3% AbCellera $ABCL +3% Biggest drops: Better Home & Finance $BETR -11% Qualys $QLYS -8% Rocket Lab $RKLB -7% Zeta Global $ZETA -6% Archer Aviation $ACHR -5% USA Rare Earth $USAR -4% Flat: AST SpaceMobile $ASTS, Equinox Gold $EQX, Bumble $BMBL, MARA $MARA Hims & Hers $HIMS -3%, Lucid $LCID -3%, PubMatic $PUBM -2%, HIVE Digital $HIVE -2%
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