Retail investors who spent the past week loading up on semiconductor stocks at the center of the artificial intelligence trade are getting pummeled amid Thursday’s rout
Retail sales rose 0.8%, but the control group, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants, edged up just 0.1%. Underlying spending was much softer than the headline suggested.
Retail investors are starting to head into money market funds (safety).
Usually this means either two things:
1. Markets continue to explode higher to punish those that sold
2. Markets do pull-back, but it's not a crash; crashes only happen when people least expect it (too many people are prepared)
Retail sentiment is extremely low.
Google searches for "Stocks To Buy" are down by ~50% since the start of June.
This aligns perfectly with the start of the sell-off in AI supply chain companies.
Retail giant Ahold Delhaize, one of the world's largest food retail chains, confirmed today that it was forced to take some systems offline after a "cybersecurity incident."
Retail spending remains robust … though down from its summer peak, year/year growth in Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index is up 8.6% for week ending Oct. 3
Retail investors are extremely bullish:
Allocation to stocks among retail investors in the AAII survey rose +0.7 percentage points in September, to 71.8%, the highest level since December 2017.
This also marks its 2nd-highest reading since July 2000.
Since April, this figure has risen +3.3 percentage points, its largest 5-month increase since October 2025.
To put this into perspective, average retail exposure to stocks since 1987 is 71.8%.
Meanwhile, allocation to cash fell -1.0 percentage point last month to 13.3%, its lowest since December 2017.
At the same time, allocation to bonds rose +0.3 percentage points, to 14.9%, remaining below its average of 15.9% since 1987.
Appetite for risk among retail investors is through the roof.