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Sentiment Poll check: The next 3% ish move in the $SPX will be….?
Sentiment on This List Is So High Across the Board That Even the Lowest-Ranked Coin Is Sitting Above 87%. Here's where conviction sits on CMC right now: $WLD: 99.6% bullish (-0.89%) $PENGU: 99.4% bullish (+1.55%) $PI: 96.6% bullish (+2.56%) $VET: 95.7% bullish (+3.14%) $KAS: 94.4% bullish (+4.14%) $XRP: 92.6% bullish (+1.23%) $PEPE: 91.4% bullish (-0.08%) $ADA: 87.7% bullish (-0.26%) $BTC: 87.7% bullish (+1.17%) $SOL: 87.4% bullish (+5.79%) $WLD and $PENGU are nearly maxed out at 99%+, an extraordinary level of one-sided conviction rarely seen across this many names simultaneously. $SOL stands out on price action too, up nearly 6% while still holding strong sentiment near 87%. Only $WLD, $PEPE, and $ADA are trading slightly red today, and even then the declines are minor, under 1% in each case, while sentiment stays firmly bullish regardless. With conviction this uniformly high and price mostly following suit, is the market entering a genuine high-confidence stretch, or is sentiment this extreme usually a signal that a pullback is close behind? || Source: CoinMarketCap
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SENTINELONE $S Q2’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $292M (Est. $290M) 🟢; +21% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.08 (Est. $0.07) 🟢; +100% YoY 🔹 ARR: $1.22B; +22% YoY 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 10%; +800 bps YoY FY27 Guide: 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.30-$0.32 (Est. $0.35) 🔴 🔹 Revenue: $1.20B-$1.21B (Est. $1.2B) 🟡 🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Income: $124M-$128M (Est. $120M) 🟢 Q3 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $309M-$311M (Est. $309M) 🟡 🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Income: $38M-$40M (Est. $38.5M) 🟡 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.08-$0.09 (Est. $0.11) 🔴 Other Q2 Metrics: 🔹 Customers with ARR of $100,000 or More: 1,715; +13% YoY 🔹 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 77%; -200 bps YoY 🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income Margin: 10%; +500 bps YoY 🔹 Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments: $813M Comments: 🔸 “We exceeded all top and bottom-line guided metrics, achieved record profitability and are raising our revenue and operating income outlook for fiscal year 2027,” 🔸 “We are scaling the business with discipline, investing in key AI growth opportunities while driving substantial operating leverage.”
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Sentiment check. Is the $BTC bottom in?
Sentinel Bio's @jtmonrad on why the future of grant-making looks more like investigative journalism than reading proposals: "When I talk about grant making as investigative journalism, a lot of that is about uncovering non-public information. Increasingly Codex or Claude or whoever can do a lot of the grunt work of reading a proposal, doing background research." "What it can't do is understanding, hey, this executive order that the White House just signed, why did that actually come to be? Or this new funder who just made a big pivot into your area, why did they make that decision? The information behind those decisions lives in the ether of happy hours, and Claude's not gonna get that out of someone."
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Sentinel Bio's @jtmonrad explains why nonprofits need more of the Bay Area startup mentality: "I have a lot of friends who work on startups here in the Bay, and I admire the velocity, the talent that they can attract, the relentlessness." "Some people in the NGO world are exceptionally high integrity, exceptionally talented, but the lack of accountability from simple things like are you making revenue, are you profitable, can make it harder to have that drive." "That's one thing the NGO world can learn. Where the for-profit world fails to deliver an impact is, J. Cole has this lyric, the good news is you came a long way. The bad news is you went the wrong way. You've delivered something at very tremendous scale, but it's not really making the world, it's not pointed in the right direction."
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Sentinel Bio's @jtmonrad calls out the two extremes ruining philanthropy: vanity on one side, "performative rigor" on the other "One would be not caring about impact at all and doing it for vanity, doing it for ego, get your name on the building. That's definitely been a big f*ck-up." "You can also fail in the other direction, where you have this almost performative fetish with cost-effectiveness for its own sake and rigor for its own sake." "One of the people who mentored me as I got into the philanthropic world would call out often when I would write these very detailed, meticulous grant investigations, and she would say, this is performative rigor. You already know what you want to do, but you feel emotionally I have to justify it with a very fancy model." "When we're talking about these issues that are so urgent, that are such grand scale, what matters is that we solve the problems, not that we make a lot of good deals along the way. My job is to solve a biosecurity problem, not to make individually cost-effective or rigorous grants."
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Sentinel Bio's @jtmonrad reveals their "victory condition" approach to grant-making: "The most important part of how we operate at Sentinel is setting what we would call the victory condition. The end state of the world that we would like to see. I work on biosecurity, so you say by 2030 it should be the case that if you're a legitimate scientist wanting to do bioscience, you can access really powerful models very easily." "But if you're some rogue terrorist group or unhobbled agent swarm trying to buy DNA online or use Mythos-7, there's gonna be some friction." "You set that end state, and then we reason backwards from what has to be true to get there. This is very different from a forward-looking way of doing grant-making where you receive some proposals, and others tell you where they would like to go, and then you evaluate who has the best plan." "What it gives you is the ability to say, this organization needs to exist to get us to the victory condition. Now let's go find the best person to do that."
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Sentiment rarely moves in a straight line. A quiet stock can go from ignored to everywhere in a matter of days. One investor day, one guidance beat, one headline picked up by the right accounts, and the whole tone on the timeline flips. That gap between what the price is doing and what the crowd is actually saying is where the real signal lives. Retail investors talk before the move shows up in the numbers, and by the time everyone's paying attention, you're already late. That's the gap we're built to track. We are watching the shift before it's the headline. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
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Sentiment is literally rock bottom... $BTC Even coming from me, this is the most bored I’ve been since September 2022.