Back in 2023, once $BTC flipped the 50MA on the weekly, it pretty much respected it throughout the entire bull market. We’ve flipped the MA, and now we’re deviating slightly below it, as we’ve seen many times before. These deviations have typically marked capitulation, with the deviations getting bought up quickly. That’s why I decided to add to my spot bags from 65K for the first time since we tested 87K. Do as you wish with this information. ⚡️

Every cycle, it’s the same story. They’ve been trying to kill $BTC since 2009, and it’s still here. 60% of the market is betting on sub $70K. I wonder how this plays out...

Monthly close for $BTC is approaching soon. Over the past 4 months, we’ve seen a rally at the start of the month. It’ll be interesting to see whether we get a similar move again, especially with the noticeably bearish narrative going into it. Unfortunately, my FOMC pivot didn’t work this time around. There’s no excuse, not even with the binance news. As I always say, everything is priced in. It’s just ironic how the FUD showed up afterwards. It’s a game of probabilities. Now that we have the monthly close approaching, it’ll be interesting to see if we get a move to the upside at the start of next month.

Bought some more $BTC spot here. I have been progressively adding exposure on each of these drops & will continue to do so. If we sweep 74K, I’ll be buying more spot. I’m already heavily exposed from 65K, and if I’m fully filled, my average spot entry will move up to around 67–68K.

FTX collapse marked the bottom. So will the Binance hack. The best way to recoup losses is to send prices significantly higher, not lower. Do not think for one moment that Binance won’t do exactly that. They hold multiple billions in $BTC and have the firepower to execute multibillion dollar longs that aren’t visible to retail. Not to mention, they probably made $1B in liquidations, slippage, and fees anyway. It might just take some time for the market to rebalance after the temporary damage. But after that, I think it’s crystal clear where we are headed on the HTF.

I am still in my $BTC long from 76.4K. The plan has not changed at all. Unfortunately, I’m round-tripping a 15% move. But when I took this position, I wasn't aiming for 15%, I was aiming for 75-100%. The plan remains completely unchanged. Painful, but unchanged. In regards to the 10x long strategy, the aggressive re-entry at 82.8K will be taken out at 74K. If we get a wick to 74K, I will re-evaluate and look to enter another 10x long. Amidst times of pressure and FUD, it’s important to remain level headed and not react emotionally or irrationally to price action because of "news." This is, indeed, most likely going to be the last significant low before we trend significantly higher. We are now 13% off the highs. The biggest retrace we saw back in 2022, based on a 77% drawdown, was 22%. I do not think we will drop 20%, so at most, we are probably close to that pivot cycle low. I find it quite ironic that we had Binance FUD aligning with the midterms. Nonetheless, still long & will either hold till my target or SL.

If you’re genuinely naive enough to think Binance is going to fall, you’re probably in the lower IQ bracket of X. These mfs have order books worth hundreds of billions. They’re trading against every mf in the market, with the deepest books and the biggest pockets. $2B is pocket change to them. Not to mention, they make money from fees, liquidations and slippage. $2B is pocket change to them. They’re fucking giants. And what better way to put in a low than to make everyone shit their pants first? The matrix is getting creative with the fud this cycle, respect it.

Unfortunately, we rejected the FOMC wick on the retest. Back to the range it is 😂 It’s pretty obvious what they’re trying to do here, bait shorts, build liquidity and hunt internal range longs. All this PA does is frustrate $BTC longs before the next 10% move. After this many hunts, not many people will have the conviction to hold their positions. Patience is everything unfortunately.

$BTC We’re back to testing the FOMC wick high, a critical LTF area. Bulls ideally need to flip this high with force to trigger a nice squeeze into the 83Ks. If they can’t reclaim this high, we could easily flop back down to the 79–80Ks. Flip the 83–84K area, and 90K is next.

With the amount of bad news and uncertainty being thrown at Bitcoin right now, you’d expect it to be trading a lot lower. We’re definitely in the process of establishing a major pivot low soon. Bearish FOMC, with rates held (priced in) Rising oil prices Hot CPI data Global bond yields surging DXY rallying Ledger wallet hack Relentless FUD around the pivot to AI MSTR delisting fears Yet despite all of this, Bitcoin is quite literally holding its range. In the grand scheme of things, considering how much negativity and macro pressure is being thrown its way, BTC is looking quite good. You’d think with this kind of shit we’d already be trading well below 70K. But we’re not. And to me, that’s interesting. $BTC is becoming increasingly resilient. The market is absorbing bad news without the kind of downside reaction you’d normally expect. That is clearly a sign we are in a bull market. Bad news in a bear market pushes prices lower, bad news in a bull market pushes prices higher. Sometimes strength isn’t about how much an asset rallies on good news. It’s about how well it holds up when everything seems to be going against it. And right now, BTC’s resilience is telling us something. Very telling indeed.

Pretty rough if you ask me... Midterms next week & $BTC looks like this 😂 Zero reason to be bearish after either. Few more days left & we are already derisking into it.

You won’t see me shorting a bull market unless I believe it’s absolutely necessary. I hate to repeat myself, but I shorted the entire bear market. I managed to capture almost the entire drop publicly, with multiple entries and retests. Even so, I’d much rather be on the long side than the short side. The time to be aggressive with shorts was when $BTC lost 100K. Since 57K was tested, I haven’t shared a single short position, and I don’t plan to share any for a while. The trend is your friend, but people seem to forget that. There’s no better feeling than being long or in spot and watching the price rise. To me, it beats being short and watching it fall. As I said when BTC was at 65K, I’m 95% exposed to the market. I’m fully risk-on. Since I believe we’re in a bull market, I plan to stay that way until we’ve moved significantly higher. Try not to get caught up in the idea that you have to catch every move. I missed the drop from 87K to 79K, and that’s completely fine. I won’t chase a move after most of it has already happened. You don’t need to catch every swing to succeed.

For all the dumbasses thinking midterms are bearish. Since 1978, the average return in 6 months after midterms is 11.79%. But I’m sure $BTC is gonna fall off a cliff, right?

I am still in my $BTC long from 76.4K. The plan has not changed at all. If you want to catch the big swing movements, you need to be able to sit through slow, time based ranges and boring price action. That is what separates the profitable from the unprofitable, patience, and sticking to your plan despite shifts in sentiment. I will not be moving my SL to entry. I will hold until either my target is reached or I am stopped out. I put genuine money where my mouth is. People always say, "Flipping stances is vital in trading." The only issue is, flipping stances is exactly why most people fuck up. The real question is, has the structure shifted, and has the plan changed? Absolutely not. So there is 0 panic in my mind. 0 second-guessing. 0 doubt. I know what my confluence is, and I am sticking to my plan.