.@taylorswift13 is No. 3 on Billboard's Top Artists of 2025 chart 🥉⁠ ⁠ In October, Swift’s 'The Life of a Showgirl' launched as her 15th No. 1 album on the Billboard 200, pushing her past Jay-Z for the most among soloists in the chart’s history. Overall, only The Beatles have more (19).⁠ See the full year-end #Artist100# ➡️

Rambling Random Ruminations of a Relic - a series Hey, Gen Z and younger Millennials—especially those of you who trade the markets. I get it. You’ve been screwed by the Boomers. Expensive education. No clear career path in your chosen field. Student loans. Another internship that leads nowhere. Close-to-minimum-wage work—not a living wage—waiting tables or doing something similar. And when you finally find a job, the owners expect you to work your butt off. What’s with these four-day, nine-hour-a-day jobs, anyway? Owning a home is not even imaginable. Marriage? Why would you want the lives your parents had? As an early-years Boomer, I fully acknowledge the disaster created for you by your parents’ and grandparents’ generations. You have every right to be angry. But I am seeing more and more of you come into equity and futures trading with expectations that are absolutely off-the-charts insane. You poo-poo this claim!!!! Many of you are chasing stories about turning $5,000 into $5 million in five years. The Market Wizards stories are incredibly compelling. One of the things I am most proud of during my 51-year career—supporting my family and building wealth—is having been featured in Market Wizards. I remain deeply honored. You might be a three-standard-deviation wonder. I am cheering for you—I truly am. Welcome to trading. It has been a thrill and an honor to trade my own money as my full-time occupation since I was in my 20s. I am now within spitting distance of 80, living in a body that betrays the fact that I once had a Division I university ice hockey scholarship. I strongly believe that the pursuit of becoming one of the three in 1,000 will ultimately reveal the full character and integrity of those three. Am I advising you not to invest in stocks? Nope. I am advising you to prepare for a career with a future, work hard and save as much as you can every month. Then I would advise putting 80% of those savings into SPY, 5% into Bitcoin and 15% into gold and silver. There is big money to be made in precious metals—but the move does not need to begin next week, Mr. and Ms. FOMO. There is a very strong chance that, 30 years from now, you will wish you had annualized 20% to 30%. You will recognize that your dream of doubling your money every year originated in Fantasyland. Please believe me: I am NOT, NOT, NOT trying to insult you. I believe in you. My grandchildren are Gen Z. Your generation has enormous potential for wealth and happiness. So, what is my advice to you???? You probably won’t accept it now, but print this X post and place it in an envelope marked, “Open in 2060.” Believe me—life goes by faster than you can possibly understand right now. If you want to learn trading—and I mean consistently profitable trading with your own money—it is possible. But you must get the idea of doubling your money every year out of your mind. Instead, think in terms of reaching 20% annually during years four and five, measured from the first year you begin trading. The best living investor/trader, in my opinion, is Stan “the Man” Druckenmiller. The best trading operation? That’s easy: Renaissance Technologies. Both have hovered in the 40%-plus zone over long periods. Let me square with you on this next statement: If you can learn to average even 30% annually over five years—with a Calmar ratio of 2.5 and without much variation across several hundred Monte Carlo simulations—you will have no trouble becoming a millionaire-plus, if money is your thing. More importantly, you will feel an enormous sense of accomplishment. Also, in my opinion, futures markets are far superior to equity markets for building an account and supporting any reasonable lifestyle. Why futures? Lots of reasons—more than enough to explore in another installment of “my story on X.” But I mean trading with real money. Not the pretend “prop shop” nonsense. If that is what you have in mind, unfollow me immediately. I have nothing to say to you. There are micro and even smaller contracts available these days, especially if you live outside the United States, where CFDs are permitted. Traders with access to CFDs have an advantage over those of us in the Stars and Stripes gang. I believe the CME even offers a one-ounce gold contract. And as more hard assets are tokenized, still more alternatives to traditional futures contracts will become available. I believe it is entirely possible to succeed in futures trading—if you enter the business with the right expectations. For your first three years, your primary goal should be simply not to lose money. If you accomplish that, you will already be way ahead of your peers. I mean WAAAY ahead. If you can survive three or four years in futures and still have your original money intact, then you may indeed have a very bright future in futures. One warning: DON’T EVER pay some service to provide you with signals, setups or whatever else the YouTube and X Wonder Kids of the Century want to sell you. You have to do this on your own. There is no other way. If there were, I would tell you. Please believe me. Perhaps I will wander deeper into this tunnel in the future. But that’s all the rambling for now.

Big news today that CME launched single stock futures - these will trade 23hrs/day, weekends, cash-settled leverage, on the 55 most liquid equities names in the US market! But this is actually not the first time CME has tried to do this. In fact, they made a huge effort in 2002- and failed fantastically. It's worth studying what happened, what's different now, and what this means for the frontier of finance. Time for a side quest- That story starts with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. This was the ugly byproduct of a 20yr reg turf war between the SEC and CFTC (sound familiar guys?), in which margin rules/short sales/reporting requirements were so complicated that even after approval broker dealer compliance framworks had no idea how to handle it. Most people don't remember this brief glitch in history because this was in fact just a big sideshow for what was actually the bigger/$$$ gamble of a darker legacy - exempting OTC derivatives from regulation altogether; this would in turn allow the CDS market to expand without oversight, and we all know what happened after that... But perhaps more practically speaking in fairness to the regulators, the more obvious reason why SS futures failed at the time was probably that there was just no genuine economic advantage over existing tools- because you can in fact get most of the leverage via listed options! Maybe you got slightly better capital efficiency for directional bets, but it wasn't good enough to otherwise offset the biggest reasons why most financial products fail: fragmented liquidity. So why are they attempting to do this again? There are many factors you can point to, but the single biggest difference now is that the retail market structure has changed enormously. American retail is more comfortable with leverage than ever in history, zero commission trading has brought in surplus liquidity beyond wildest dreams, levered ETFs and 0DTE options cant grow fast enough, and crypto perps have demonstrated that there is a ton of appetite for this kind of risk that simply just didn't exist before 2008. If you look at what the CME has been doing, the "retailification of leverage" has been happening for a long time already, starting with micro bitcoin futures called "BFFs" (Bitcoin Friday Futures lol) and the cringy Gen Z social ad that followed for those that are still scarred from seeing it. It's why CME launched for SS futures standard contracts (100 shares) but also micro contracts (10 shares). Honestly - who needs 10 shares futures contracts? The other reason, and probably more critically important, is to pursue a defensive posture. The CME doesn't compete in a vacuum anymore - with exchanges like Coinbase, Robinhood (+ a JVs between Susquehanna for predictions market), Hyperliquid all going after the same retail customer, the race to become the "everything brokerage" is just as much about distribution as much as it is about product design. And we know distribution is everything in finance because the beauty of Reg T + futures based margining is at its most competitive with scale and diversity, for the physics of money operates like a gravitational field: the larger the mass, the stronger its pull. So what does this mean for you? The single stock futures is not the product. You are the product. YOU are the yield. You are the currency that feed these HFTs, market makers, "big finance" just like you were the data currency for social networks, marketers, "big tech." Your intent to trade, the order book you create as makers, the tape you paint as takers, your inability to discriminate for best price when there are tens of seemingly fungible but slightly variant risks being offered, is their profit. And while it may all sound really dire when I frame it like this, but there is actually a way to win. And it goes back to the first principle of why the single stock futures failed to gain traction back in 2002. You must trade OPTIONS. Of course none of this is actual investment advice and you must always do your own research. But as I've written many times before on X already, options are the best tools retail investors have to protect against big finance. That's because options have the greatest asymmetric leverage embedded in the physics of its product that allow great convexity with great duration. When CME's Duffy says "perps are bad products for retail" he is not necessarily wrong- perps have the potential to be the most dangerous products for retail because they have no assurance or guarantee to control their own outcomes, especially given retail is so small- institutions can liquidate you (or each other, and you're just an ant caught in a stampede of bulls) where you have no agency. The reality is that the commodities futures market since the beginning of time has been found useful because it combines speculators WITH natural hedgers. And there is no natural hedger on earth who would take perps risk to hedge their long term business. Duration is an asset. Duration deserves a premium. Term structure exists because there is in fact a market for time. And when you own an option, it means you have the choice, but never the obligation, to meet time where and when you demand it. As I write this, I'm reminded that history has a peculiar sense of humor, delighting in the ironies of fate. The same bill that allowed then failed single stock futures market in 2000 is the same bill that gave us the reg vacuum for the CDS market that basically is the single biggest proximate legal cause of the 2008 financial crisis. And twenty years later yet again now as we head into CLARITY posturing for the next two weeks, on another epic settlement for a CFTC vs SEC battle, there are public debates occurring on various salient features that the crypto industry cares about. But you would all be wise to take note that if the past precedence holds again, the most consequential thing that will happen will actually be interpreted as a footnote, just like the "the Enron loophole" (aka. the OTC swap exemption) and it WILL involve offshore derivatives just as it did last time. And that footnote is what is going to let crypto industry expand again, bigger, stronger and faster. Because that is the other physics of money beyond a gravitational field: the harder you try to confine capital, the faster it leaks across borders.

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