A Factor Move buy signal was given yesterday via probably Type 1 breakout at 30,537 $NQ_F with target at 33,650
Buy the leaders, sell the sheep
Our policy is to buy the category's leaders when long and to short a category's weaklings when short
Often retail traders buy the sheep after missing the leaders. Then when a correction comes the sheep are struck with lightening
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Observation on the unsophisticated audience of X
Seems that on any given market the geniuses on X are either Hot or Cold, bull or bear, moon or dungeon
Why?
Price discovery is nuanced, layered, not always black or white
The beauty of markets lies not in the headlines of a market, but often in the footnotes
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This is my long-term chart of ripple:native It implies an eventual advance to $5.40
A claim of a "call" or simple presentation of a chart is NOT a trade People who claim "trades" need to provide proof or else the claims are BS An X post is NOT proof
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This is my long-term chart of ethereum:native It implies an eventual move to 8,600 once 5,000 is handled
A claim of a "call" or simple presentation of a chart is NOT a trade
People who claim "trades" need to provide proof or else the claims are BS
An X post is NOT proof
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Lots of people on X make lots of claims about big bold market calls
A market call without action is worthless
Proof of a trade is the only thing that matters
So, how should proof be shown?
Simple
Let's see the tax statement from the country through which the trade was made
Otherwise the call is bogus and meaningless
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I term these as "running" markets. During running markets there are seldom more than two or three days of corrections and the 8 DMA provides support throughout on daily chart runs
Please allow me to translate the profound message Linda is conveying. She is noting that the intraday price uptrend on Monday is very linear, such that even a very tight stop is not getting hit. Signal processing engineers would say that there is a high "signal to noise" ratio.
Smooth intraday trends typically happen when there is a large amount of money that needs to get put to work, but the big firms don't want to dump a large order into the market all at once and move prices. So their trading desks use algorithms to chop up the large slug of money into smaller pieces, doling orders out more slowly. This results in that linear form of the intraday chart plot.
The key takeaway, therefore, is that there must be a large amount of money deciding to move now, based on seeing footprints in the intraday plot which match the behavior of prices when that condition is in effect.
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While I cannot legally trade CFDs, increasingly I prefer the CFD charts more than the continuation futures chart to do analysis and timing
Sitting at the airport waiting for boarding random thoughts...
Outside of the U.S. CFD products are extremely popular.
I think in the U.S. there is a tendency to look down on CFD traders as being less 'professional'.
I used to think the same thing, to be honest. I started my trading journey with CFD brokers domiciled in Cyprus and offering 100000x leverage and got rugged on my very first withdrawal attempt.
But... there are some absolute monsters out there that trade CFDs with real live accounts.
I've seen it with my own eyes.
@Capital_Hungry is the biggest monster of them all.
If you're sleeping on his S&P 500 / Nasdaq / Gold analysis and trades because he's not trading futures, you're making a huge mistake.
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This is a very significant possible longer term look at $SOL
When I was a Delta pilot, I used to layover in Minneapolis a lot. I visited the Mall of America a few years ago. I’d heard about it and had lots of time to kill. The copilot told me not to waste my time but I was super bored. I went for it.
I immediately regretted it. I felt like I was back in Mogadishu in 1993. Black Hawk Down vibes. It’s a third world hell hole. Couldn’t wait to leave. It’s not the United States, it’s Somalia.
We don’t want it and we don’t want
@Ilhan.
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Hey
@BitcoinLive1 members, I have posted a piece devoted to #
altcoins# here
It is possible Crypto Cap ex BTC would experience 6X move in next few two or so years
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A bear trap immediately followed by a spring board
This is not something to be taken casually
This can be powerful
$BTC
A little discussed aspect of successful trading is the need for right-side outliers. Stan the Man, George Soros and Winner Warren all have them
This is the distribution of monthly RORs for my trading firm, Factor LLC, dating back to 1981
A right-facing dinosaur with a dragging tail should be sought
Cut your losses short, let your winners run
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Bulls can make money. Bears can make money. But greedy pigs wanting to catch every top and bottom end up butchered. Greed leads to the chopping block
A thermometer can be perfectly accurate and still tell you almost nothing about whether you should go outside.
It measures temperature.
It doesn’t measure rain, wind, sunlight, or what you’re wearing.
The instrument isn’t wrong.
The measurement is simply incomplete.
Trading data works the same way.
Win rate can be accurate.
Profit factor can be accurate.
Sharpe ratio can be accurate.
Yet none of them, alone, tells you what produced the result.
Two strategies can have identical returns and completely different underlying behavior.
One may depend on a few extraordinary trades.
Another may earn small gains consistently and occasionally suffer large losses.
Same headline number.
Different machine underneath.
The danger isn’t bad data.
It’s asking good data to answer a question it was never designed to answer.
Measurement is not understanding.
#
Trading# #
Statistics# #
RiskManagement#
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We should forever distrust the public health cabal after the Covid disaster - World Health, CDC, Dept of Health, local puppet physicians, the public health service
I will never take a vaccine again
I just dropped EXPLOSIVE vaccine data at the Michigan House Oversight Hearing that Henry Ford REFUSED to show up to…
“ALL 22 of the chronic disease categories were proportionally HIGHER in the vaccinated children in the LARGEST and most COMPREHENSIVE vaccinated vs. unvaccinated birth cohort study to date.”
Our peer-reviewed reanalysis of the Henry Ford data examined the RAW NUMBERS:
Any chronic condition: 250% HIGHER
Asthma: 553% HIGHER
Atopic disease: 386% HIGHER
Autoimmune disease: 1,120% HIGHER
Brain dysfunction: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Cancer: 54% HIGHER
Diabetes: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Food allergy: 128% HIGHER
Mental health disorders: 696% HIGHER
Neurodevelopmental disorders: 1,254% HIGHER
ADHD: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Autism: 180% HIGHER
Behavioral disabilities: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Developmental delay: 412% HIGHER
Learning disabilities: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Intellectual disabilities: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Speech disorders: 803% HIGHER
Motor disabilities: 810% HIGHER
Tics: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Other psychological disabilities: ONLY IN VACCINATED
Neurological disorders: 26% HIGHER
Seizure disorders: 216% HIGHER
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Several default assumptions I make in trading
The next trade will be a loser
Uncertainty in a daily trend usually is resolved in the direction of the weekly trend
Uncertainty in a weekly trend is usually resolved in the direction of the monthly trend
That I have absolutely no idea where any given market is going
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At Factor Trading, established at the CBOT in 1981, when we are looking to place a bet we examine as many charts of the market as possible. In the case of Soybean Meal, we typically review about a dozen charts. The company's largest current bet is on the Dec delivery
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My first law of trading is this:
Don't lose money
This does not mean I do not have losing trades -- almost half my trades close at a loss
What it means is that I never want to be more than one or two good trades away from a new ATH NAV
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