Fighters were scrambled in both Latvia and Poland earlier, with Poland citing Russian strikes in Ukraine for the measure. Per a subsequent release from Latvia, fighters with NATO’s Baltic Air Policing framework were scrambled to mitigate any possible air threats to the nation.

Fires are visible in multiple locations at the Kapotnya oil refinery in Moscow this morning (local time). Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces posted a fire emoji on X, a signal they have used before to seemingly imply responsibility without making an official claim. No official confirmation has been issued by Ukrainian or Russian authorities. The Kapotnya refinery, Moscow's largest, supplies roughly 35 to 40 percent of the capital's fuel market. It has been struck repeatedly since June 2026, including two major attacks within days of each other that damaged its primary crude processing units. Industry estimates put full repairs at up to a billion dollars, with some analysts projecting the facility may not be fully restored until 2027. The extent to which the refinery is damaged is still being assessed.

According to a report from CNN, an AI-aided intelligence report incorrectly assessed that a Chinese vessel in the Middle East was carrying nuclear material. Per the report, the assessment induced a fast reaction from U.S. military forces in the region, with forces preparing to interdict the vessel based on some sourcing, via the AI chat-bot the analyst used, that was “entirely false.” While the quote that a potential operation “may have started a war” is overstating the potential fallout, should the operation have been carried out, it would have dampened the U.S.-China diplomatic relationship significantly before the much anticipated meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald J. Trump.

As a precautionary measure amidst escalation in Yemen involving the Houthis, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas announced today the EU’s maritime escort mission in the Red Sea, ASPIDES, would be increasing the alert level of vessels participating in the mission. The move comes amidst increased worries that the Houthis may target commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Currently 4 vessels, including an Italian frigate, a French FREMM warship, and a Greek warship, are involved in the rotational mission that saw its mission area overlap with the at the time (late 2024) already ongoing EU naval mission, ATALANTA.

Overnight, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center issued two new advisories. The advisories follow reports of vessels struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents occurred yesterday and early this morning. Both crews are reported safe and no environmental impact has been reported at this time.

The U.S. military is expected to move most of its MQ-9 "Reaper" drones out of Africa and into U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), which oversees Latin America, according to six sources who spoke with CNN. The Pentagon declined to comment. The shift comes as the Trump administration ramps up counternarcotics and counterterrorism plans in South America, including potential operations in Ecuador. One source said discussions are still underway about sending some drones to the Middle East instead, where the US has lost MQ-9s in strikes against Iran. Some sources voiced concern that pulling drones from Africa could hurt ongoing operations against ISIS and al Shabaab there. The move follows a classified DOJ legal opinion, previously reported by CNN, authorizing lethal strikes against a secret list of cartels. Colombia has separately arranged to borrow three MQ-9A drones from the US, and Panama just received over six million dollars in drone systems for border surveillance. Source:

The Texas Air National Guard has issued a statement confirming that the F-16 "Fighting Falcon" that crashed in Blair Township near Traverse City, Michigan belonged to the 149th Fighter Wing based at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, Texas and was conducting routine training in the Alpena Combat Readiness Training Center, adding that the pilot successfully ejected from the aircraft. The incident is currently under investigation.

The U.S. State Department has approved a possible $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35A Lightning II fighters to Saudi Arabia, marking a major expansion of the Kingdom’s advanced combat aircraft capabilities. The proposed package includes 49 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines, along with secure communications and cryptographic equipment, electronic warfare support, training, simulators, spare parts, maintenance and other logistics support. The notification to Congress says the sale would strengthen Saudi Arabia’s homeland defense, improve interoperability with U.S. and regional forces and enhance its air-to-air and air-to-ground self-defense capabilities. The State Department also states that the sale would not alter the military balance in the region or adversely affect U.S. defense readiness. State Department approval and congressional notification is one of several steps in the process and does not mean a sale is final.

Following an F-16 crash in Blair County, Michigan, local reports indicate that the pilot is “conscious and alert” and that locals saw a parachute before the crash. Much thanks to Skeeterdiggs23 on IG for the first photo.

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) has added three Iranians and two Iranian businesses to its sanctions list, while simultaneously designating three Cuban individuals and six Cuban state-owned entities and removing several Belarusian entities from the sanctions list. The Iranian designations target Seyed Adel Heidari, Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein and Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein, along with Bitbank and Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company. OFAC lists the individuals and entities under its Iran sanctions authorities and says they are subject to secondary sanctions. The Cuban designations target three individuals and six state owned research, defense, mining and industrial entities. Meanwhile, OFAC removed several Belarusian entities, including Lakokraska and Kontsern Bellesbumprom, from the SDN List. Source:

According to U.S. President Donald J. Trump, the U.S. and Poland are working to establish a U.S. Army base in Poland, which would be the third such site, if it is administered similar to other sites at Naval Support Facility Redzikowo (Aegis Ashore) and Camp Kościuszko (U.S. Army Garrison Poland (USAG-P). Per President Trump, the location of the planned base has not yet been determined but will be announced soon if plans move forward.

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre, a vessel 75nm east of Aden, Yemen traveling westbound towards the Bab el Mandeb Strait was pursued by a skiff that attempted, presumably unsuccessfully, to intercept the vessel. Likely a piracy incident.

According to a release from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call today with his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi. While no commensurate state department release has hit feeds at the time of writing, per the Chinese release, the two spoke about “the next stage of [U.S.-China] high level exchanges,” likely referring to the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, although true to form, the release did not directly refer to the upcoming meeting.