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Dan Nystedt
@dnystedt
Former journalist, now financial analyst. Based in Taipei. Tweet mainly about semiconductors and Taiwan. Not investment advice. Views are my own.
1.2K Following    53.2K Followers
TSMC VP Jun He, ‘The CoWoS guy’ head of advanced packaging technology, media report: -“very close” to meeting CoWoS demand, but not yet -10 advanced packaging plants now -CoWoS capacity doubled each of last 3-years -5.5x reticle size CoWoS in mass production with over 98% yields on multiple AI client products -14x reticle size CoWoS out by 2029 -TSMC to introduce new technology every year -SoIC 6-micron hybrid bonding pitch in mass production last year, will shrink to 4.5 micron by 2029, for A14 chip stacking. SoIC offers 50x interconnect density, 5x energy efficiency -Beyond 3x Reticle size, quality of all components must beat automotive-grade to keep failure rates low -Bottlenecks: ABF substrate shortages will be 2nd to memory in coming years. Companies are sourcing substrates from multiple suppliers now to keep up, and variations in thermal & mechanical properties are an issue. -Boosting Yields via Chiplet ‘Smart Matchmaking’: Reclaims dies that might otherwise be scrapped by matching with ones that ensure consistent performance. -Interposers: Evolving from connection layer to also house voltage regulators, capacitors, and Silicon Photonics. -Shift to Parallel Development: Customer chips now enter fabs before testing finalized; suppliers must station R&D teams near TSMC fabs to make real-time fixes during mass production. -Early System Specifications: TSMC to publish system guidelines 6 quarters before mass production so clients and suppliers can align on thermal, mechanical, power requirements (STCO). $TSM $NVDA $AMD $AMZN $GOOGL $AVGO $MSFT $META #semiconductors#
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TSMC is pushing hard on both Co-Packaged Optics (COUPE Silicon Photonics engine) and CoPoS advanced packaging, which display panel maker AUO hopes to take part in, media report. The AUO Group sees a chance for AUO to become a partner in CoPoS and CPO testing & verification, while 3 subsidiaries could join TSMC’s CPO supply chain, Ennostar for light sources, Tyntek in sensors and GCS in reinforcement. $TSM #semiconductors#
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Rumor: TSMC plans to buy 2 plants in the Central Taiwan Science Park (CTSP) from AUO to expand CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, media report, citing unnamed industry sources. Negotiations are already underway and TSMC may pay over NT$30 billion (US$930M) for the plants, both near its Fab 15. The plants are both used for display panel manufacturing, one 7.5G and one 5G. Buying existing plants saves time ramping up CoWoS because these plants already have massive cleanroom space and a stable power supply. $TSM $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $GOOGL $AMZN #AUO# #CoWoS# #semiconductors#
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Kioxia QJun26 - Revenue up 71% q/q and 367% y/y to $11.0B (pricing strength); QSep guided to $14.8B (+34% q/q) - Blended ASP up 70% q/q on a USD basis, while bit shipments up low single digits. - Adjusted gross margin 80% & Non-GAAP operating profit $8.3B at a 75.0% margin - Capex stays disciplined at $2.9B per year on average through FY28 - LTAs on track to cover 50% of shipments by CY28
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Probably the chart of the year? Free cash flow for the hyperscalers ($META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $ORCL) is tanking, while it is soaring for the chips ($NVDA, $MU, $AVGO, $AMAT). "One company's spending is another company's revenue." @sonusvarghese
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Bombshell FBI raids target SoCal officials as investigators probe Chinese foreign influence in California
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🚨 TOK raises guidance by double digits on AI-driven demand for high-purity chemicals (adv. photoresist). Watch the materials vendors. They see the fabs’ wafer-start forecasts first—it’s a long supply chain: Wafer starts forecast. → Materials vendors. → Batch planning → Raw material sub-suppliers
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Nikkei - "Elon Musk-led SpaceX has sent teams to audit existing and prospective suppliers and is instructing partners across its vast global supply chain not to assign or employ Chinese nationals at facilities producing products for SpaceX, or to use systems or equipment made by Chinese companies, the people said."
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Yageo, Taiwan’s biggest passive component maker, said demand for AI server components remains 'very, very strong', leading some customers to pay a premium to secure supply and sign Long Term Agreements (LTAs), media report, adding Yageo raised prices in the 2nd quarter to keep pace with rising materials costs, and may have to raise prices again. #Yageo# #TaiyoYuden# #SamsungElectroMechanics#
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AI server giant Quanta Computer plans to raise up to US$2.2 billion (NT$71.2B) through a GDS (Global Depositary Share) offering in Luxembourg, media report, the biggest overseas fundraising by a Taiwan firm in nearly 20-years, media report, with the funds to be used for factory construction, component and materials purchases, more. $NVDA $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $META #Quanta# #AIservers#
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Note: 800V HVDC (800-volt High Voltage Direct Current) is also a common way to write it out, but 800V DC works better because the HV is redundant. 800V is high voltage.
Delta Electronics, the power electronics giant, will spend NT$70 billion (US$2.2B) on capex this year, up from NT$46 billion last year and sees the 2nd half of the year even better than the first half. Mass production of 800V DC equipment is expected to begin in the 3rd quarter, said Chairman Ping Cheng, also: “The wave of AI data center construction will not stop.” #DeltaElectronics# #DC#
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More data centers underway for @cerebras (Who doesn't love massive construction projects?) Build the fastest AI infrastructure. Build data centers around the world to house it. Deliver blisteringly fast tokens to leading customers including @OpenAI . Rinse. Repeat.
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SAMSUNG Q2 EARNINGS • Revenue: $118.1B vs. Est. $119.2B (+130% YoY) • Operating profit: $61.7B vs. Est. $60.8B (+1,814% YoY) Samsung expects strong H2 memory demand led by continued AI infrastructure spending and broader agentic AI adoption
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UMC, Taiwan’s 2nd biggest chip foundry, has raised its capex to US$2 billion from $1.5 billion as it expands production in Singapore and Tainan, south Taiwan, media report. UMC will expand cleanroom capacity of its Phase 4 facility in Singapore and build a new fab in Tainan. Construction of the new fab is expected to take 20-months. UMC also said it plans to spend at least $5 billion over 3-years, including the $2B this year. $UMC $AMAT $ASML $LRCX $KLAC #semiconductors#
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China needs hard currency.
FT: CHINA’S MINISTRY OF COMMERCE HAS DISCUSSED WITH AI COMPANIES, INCLUDING ALIBABA, BYTEDANCE, AND ZHIPU AI, POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON THE OVERSEAS TRANSFER OF KEY DATA USED TO TRAIN AI MODELS, AS WELL AS ON FOREIGN USERS DOWNLOADING MODEL WEIGHTS. HOWEVER, CHINA PLANS TO CONTINUE ALLOWING OVERSEAS CUSTOMERS TO ACCESS THESE MODELS AND SERVICES.
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Silicon Valley and Washington are debating a multibillion-dollar question: Should American companies be able to use Chinese artificial-intelligence models?
What on earth is BYD thinking by hiring someone who is universally despised by the European Union? At least EU can pay him off to gain leaked data!
28nm is not an easy node to jump into even if a fab buys the IP. It was the first true immersion lithography made device. It was the node that busted TI out of the leading edge club 20 years ago, and they are only starting to rekindle that now with the acquisition of Micron's Utah fabs (2021) and then Silicon Labs' design IP (2026). 28 nm has huge portfolio value in the foreseeable future. It will continue to make money for decades. When I see startups put out roadmaps saying they'll ramp in a year or two on 28nm I take it with a grain of salt. Easier said than done! This is a long game.
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