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Dan Nystedt
@dnystedt
Former journalist, now financial analyst. Based in Taipei. Tweet mainly about semiconductors and Taiwan. Not investment advice. Views are my own.
1.1K Following    48.6K Followers
TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium (Taiwan 5/14) Summary: Global Expansion & Operations · Global Build-out: Constructing or modifying 18 fabs worldwide (includes 5 advanced packaging plants). · Taiwan Core: 12 of these 18 facilities are located in Taiwan. · Acceleration: Expansion speed has doubled to 9 new plants per year (2025–2026) vs. 4 per year (2017–2024). International Site Progress · Arizona (USA): -Fab 1 output to grow 1.8x in 2026. -Fab 2 equipment move-in 2H-2026 (N3 production 2H-2027). -Fab 3 broke ground 1H-2025. -Fab 4 and first advanced packaging plant (AP1) are in initial construction. · Kumamoto (Japan): -Fab 1 (28/22nm) yield already equals Taiwan levels; 2026 output target is 2.3x YoY. -Fab 2 began construction in 2025 for N3 production. · Dresden (Germany): -ESMC facility focusing on 12nm–28nm for Automotive/Industrial. Advanced Process Roadmap (N2 / A14 / A12) · N2 Momentum: Fab 20 (Hsinchu) and Fab 22 (Kaohsiung) are in mass production. Taichung Fab 25 to follow in 2028. · N2 Performance: First-year output expected to be 45% higher than N3's first year. Capacity expansion CAGR of 70% seen 2026–2028. · Yield Maturity: N2 yield learning curve is 2 quarters ahead of N3 at the same stage, driven by AI-optimized manufacturing. · A14 (1.4nm): Already achieved >80% yield on 256Mb SRAM; offers 10–15% speed boost or 25–30% power reduction vs. N2. · New Nodes: -A12 (Performance-focused with Backside Power/Super Power Rail) and A13 both targeting 2029 production. -N2U(enhanced 2nm) slated for 2028. · Next-Gen: CFET architecture reduces SRAM cell area by 30%vs. Nanosheet. Advanced Packaging & Silicon Photonics · CoWoS Scale: 5.5x reticle size now at 98% yield. Scaling to 14x reticle for 20 HBMs by 2028 and 24 HBMs by 2029. · System on Wafer (SoW): Future "Super Exchange" chips to integrate 64 HBMs/16 CoWoS units, exceeding 40x reticle size with 100TB+ bandwidth. · Growth: 3DIC/CoWoS capacity CAGR of >80% 2022–2027. · COUPE: All-optical interconnects to replace copper as data centers scale to millions of GPUs and power needs surge 200x. Specialty & Memory Shift · The Memory Divorce: Shifting from eFlash to RRAM (ReRAM) and MRAM for advanced nodes (≤28nm) in Auto, AI Glasses, and Edge AI. · Edge AI Specs: -N4PRF (RF process) for 39% power reduction -N16HV(16nm High Voltage) specifically for AI Smart Glasses/AR displays. $TSM $NVDA $AAPL $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $INTC $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $META #semiconductors# Links:
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China’s Yangtze Memory will submit its IPO application in China next month now that its expansion into DRAM has been greenlit by Beijing amid the Memory Supercycle, media report, adding its new Wuhan Fab (Phase 3) dedicated to LPDDR DRAM will be ready for production by end-2026. The listing is expected either on the Shanghai Star Market or in Hong Kong, valuation RMB 160 billion to 300 billion (US$23.6B to $44.2B). YMTC currently competes in the NAND Flash memory market. $SSNLF $HXSCL $MU $SNDK #Kioxia#
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