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Dr Richard Hirschson
@richardhirschs1
Physician, Intensive Care, pandemics, economics, libertarian, gambler. No financial/medical advice here. #H5N1# #BirdFlu# #MPOX# #DiseaseX# #Stagflation# #Gold#
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⚠️Hantavirus update. So now there is an 8th case in Switzerland (ship passenger that disembarked early, not particularly unwell). The French ‘case’ isn’t a real case, he is simply a contact for now who was on the flight to Johannesburg with the sick Dutch case (we will need to wait 8 weeks to see if he becomes symptomatic and tests positive). Further cases are not unexpected though. Current cases remains early generation H2H spread on ship. We can expect a few second or third generation cases from flights or healthcare facilities where these patients are treated. My previously reviewed article from @NEJM documents the person-to-person transmission dynamics in the Argentina outbreak: 34 cases, 11 deaths, four generations of human-to-human transmission. This virus has very low pandemic risk, it’s too deadly and it’s R0 with isolation is far too low.
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