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Nonzee
@0xNonceSense
Macro & Crypto | On-chain research | Only alpha
参加 September 2021
436 フォロー中    104.4K ファン
THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE ENDS. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all racing to IPO at the same time. The market needs to come up with $200 BILLION in fresh capital to absorb them. That money has to come from somewhere. Large funds will start selling their biggest tech positions to free up cash. NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google will be the first to get sold. The problem is, those three names are carrying the entire S&P 500. When they drop, everything drops. This exact setup played out during the COVID-era IPO wave. Rivian, Coinbase, Robinhood all went public at absurd valuations. When the Fed tightened and liquidity disappeared, every single one crashed over 80%. AI and tech are already stretched thin. A $200B capital drain on top of that creates a forced liquidation event. If you've been following me, you already caught the $16k bottom and the $126k top. Missed those calls? The next one is coming. Follow me and turn notifications on.
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🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps trying to push higher. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. The next move won’t wait for you. Follow and turn notifications on.
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