Here are my priors for the next few months:
1. Cybersecurity will push the big labs back into hyper-growth mode, much like the coding agent wave did.
2. More GPUs will shift from training to inference.
3. Open-weight model prices will drop. This may push closed labs to lower their prices too.
4. GPU rental prices will keep rising.
The middle of the market will get squeezed, even as the pie grows larger.
You can read more about it below. Feedback is greatly welcomed.