PlanB
@100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉
参加 October 2017
160 フォロー中 2.2M ファン
One of my first tweets (2018) .. funny in hindsight
#bitcoin# 2024: $100k, $1mln or $10mln?
Logarithmic
+ best data fit
- overfits 2010 (Satoshi only miner, no markets)
- shape inconsistent with S-curve
Exponential
+ good fit
+ doesnt overfit
- endless growth
Logistic
+ formal S-curve
+ exponential till 25% adoption, then levels
もっと見る
