Quoting my earlier Big Tech AI capex note with an actual small position update. The framework I’m testing is simple: Big Tech AI trade is moving from “who has the best AI story?” to “who can turn AI capex into revenue, margin, and cash flow?” $MSFT is the cleaner version of this trade. Latest quarter: revenue +18%, Microsoft Cloud +29%, Azure +40%, and AI business surpassed a $37B annualized revenue run rate. That matters because Microsoft’s AI spend already has obvious distribution: Azure, M365, Copilot, enterprise software, and existing corporate workflows. Technically, after entering near 407, reclaiming 420 changed the short-term structure for me. As long as 420 holds, I’m watching 426–430 as the next supply zone. If it loses 420, I’d rather reassess than force the thesis. The recent Ackman / Pershing Square position also adds narrative support for MSFT, although I treat it as confirmation rather than the core reason. $META is the more controversial one. Fundamentally, the core business is still strong: revenue +33%, ad impressions +19%, and average price per ad +12%. The pressure comes from capex. Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125B–$145B, and the market immediately started asking the right question: How long will investors wait before AI spending shows up in cash flow? Technically, 600–605 is the key zone for me. If buyers defend that area, META could get re-rated from “AI capex fear” back toward “AI improves ad efficiency, recommendations, and content distribution.” If it loses that zone, the market is probably saying the capex concern needs more time. For comparison: $GOOGL looks like the most direct “AI already entering revenue” case through Cloud, Search, YouTube, ads, and TPU infrastructure. $AMZN still has AWS, Trainium, Anthropic exposure, and enterprise cloud migration. The issue is that Amazon is harder to read cleanly because retail, logistics, ads, AI infra, and AWS all affect the valuation at the same time. So my current preference is: $MSFT = cleaner AI monetization path $META = bigger controversy / possible mispricing $GOOGL = strong verification through Cloud + ads $AMZN = still interesting, less clean for my current capital size This is a small, high-volatility thesis trade. The real question I’m tracking: For every dollar of AI capex, where does the dollar come back from? NFA. Just my learning note as a student investor.