On November 21, 2024, MSTR hit $543 intraday.
They had 331,200 Bitcoin at roughly $98k per coin.
$543 per share x 230.477m basic shares = $125 billion market cap
Yes, a $125 billion market cap with around $32.5 billion of Bitcoin.
That was around 3.8x the value of their Bitcoin NAV.
With Strategy's current Bitcoin stack of 847,363 coins, a Bitcoin price of $98,000 would lift them back to $83 billion of Bitcoin.
The same premium as November 2024 would be a $315.4 billion market cap versus them holding only $83 billion of Bitcoin.
This is not going to happen. I would love to be proven incorrect, but there isn't a snowball's chance in hell.
I continue to see this same suggestion for Strategy "wait until MSTR hits a 2.5x mNAV before selling shares".
Uh, no. This idea that the market is just going to magically reward them a market cap of $207.5 billion when they have $83 billion of Bitcoin is nonsensical at their size. $124.5 billion in premium to MSTR? Not going to happen.
2.5x mNAV guidance would be foolish, this is obvious for anyone crunching the math.
Pick a more reasonable premium number and continue to buy Bitcoin when advantageous for the long term.