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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Author of The Great Harvest | @BitcoinForCorps | Advisor @saturn_credit | MSTR + MTPLF + ASST HODLER |
参加 January 2025
281 フォロー中    87.1K ファン
🚀 BITCOIN JUST ENTERED A HISTORIC CORRELATION REGIME 🚀 This is WILD. I genuinely believe Bitcoin is setting up for a COVID-style blow-off bull run. Bitcoin’s correlation with GOLD is currently sitting near the absolute extreme of the last decade: 42-day: 99.7th percentile 63-day: 99.96th percentile 90-day: 100th percentile Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with QQQ is basically ordinary. The 63-day numbers: BTC ↔ GOLD: +0.587 BTC ↔ QQQ: +0.318 Bitcoin is suddenly behaving MUCH more like hard money than high-beta tech. So I went hunting through 10 years of daily data for every remotely similar setup. I defined the regime mechanically: BTC/gold correlation in the top 5% of history while BTC/QQQ correlation stayed inside its middle 50%. There were 68 matching trading days. Here’s the insane part: Every single one clustered between July 27 and November 27, 2020. You may remember what Bitcoin did next. Median BTC return after those signals: 6 months: +315% 12 months: +309% 18 months: +246% 24 months: +77% Positive-return hit rate: 6M: 100% 12M: 100% 18M: 100% 24M: 91% For comparison, Bitcoin’s normal median 6-month return across the entire last decade was only about +20%. So historically, this exact regime wasn’t merely bullish. It was the market quietly loading a ballistic missile while everyone was arguing about whether Bitcoin was still a tech stock. Important caveat: those 68 observations all belong to ONE previous macro episode, so this is an analog, not a prophecy. But the last time Bitcoin’s correlation structure shifted this aggressively toward gold… Bitcoin went completely vertical. Hard money regime. Scarcity trade waking up. 🚀🚀🚀
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