BULLISH BITCOIN SIGNAL: Bitcoin just reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis, and the two cost bases are squeezed tighter than at any point since 2023. Price vs. STH realized price: +7.6% Price vs. LTH realized price: +55.2% STH cost basis ÷ LTH cost basis: 1.44× In February 2025 that ratio was 3.7×. The top buyers either capitulated or aged into the long-term cohort, and the new marginal buyer now pays only 44% more than the diamond hands. Since 2012, Bitcoin spent 1,333 days below 1.5×. It was higher one year later on 98% of them. Tighten the filter to today's exact setup, ratio at or below 1.5× with price above the STH cost basis, and you get 629 days with zero losers. Median 1-year return: +134%. Prior squeeze regimes, one year after entering the setup: June 2015: +178% March 2019: +53% January 2023: +159% The eerie twin is October 2023: ratio 1.50×, price +0.4% over the STH cost basis, +50% over the LTH cost basis. Bitcoin was $28K. 12 months later it was $63K. Is it bullish? Historically, yes, and strongly. 1-year win rates fall in a clean staircase as the ratio rises: 100% below 1.0×, 97% at 1.0–1.5×, then 84%, 70%, 50%, and 42% above 5×. The weakest signal day was May 27, 2019, bought 55% over the STH basis, and it returned only +0.8%. At +7.6% today, you're in the sweet spot. The chart plots the ratio history on the left, with green segments marking every signal day and the three prior regimes labeled. The right side shows the 1-year win rate for each ratio bucket, with today's bucket in orange: