Adam Livingston(@AdamBLiv):Bitcoin amplification drives total returns, and amplifying at the right time is tremendously powerful. Let me show you. A good hypothetical... what if a Bitcoin treasury company only added amplification when Bitcoin was cheapest against gold? I backtested it from Jan 2017 to today. Bitcoin: 84x Same company, re-levering to 60% at every BTC/Gold cycle bottom: 579x That's 6.9x better than just holding BTC. Let's take a hypothetical company with a similar setup to Strive's current balance sheet. 29,462 BTC, 100.9M shares, a cash reserve. For simplicity, let's say the stock always trades at 1.5x mNAV. Amplification comes from issuance of a perpetual preferred paying 15% a year. Dividends are paid by selling common stock at 1.5x NAV. Amplification = preferred outstanding ÷ BTC market value The signal is BTC priced in ounces of gold. Every cycle the ratio collapses, then rips. The bottoms: Feb 7, 2019: 2.56 oz (BTC $3,359) Dec 31, 2022: 9.07 oz ($16,530) Mar 1, 2026: 12.22 oz ($65,800) Each cycle bottomed higher than the last. Why add amplification at the bottom? Preferred is a fixed dollar amount, so when BTC runs, amplification shrinks on its own. 60% at the 2019 bottom was about 3% by the 2021 top. The amplification is highest when BTC is cheapest and nearly gone by the euphoria. Max drawdown: −86% for the stock vs. −84% for BTC. At each bottom, the company issued preferred and bought BTC until amplification was back to 60%: 2019: 17.7% → 60%. $105M of prefs, +31,129 BTC 2022: 12.2% → 60%. $1.2B of prefs, +72,418 BTC 2026: 15.1% → 60%. $9.8B of prefs, +149,392 BTC Holdings went from 29,462 BTC to 282,402. Bottom-to-bottom returns: 2019→2022: BTC +387% | stock +843% 2022→2026: BTC +303% | stock +681% 2026→now: BTC +24% | stock +51% The average hike added 45 points of amplification. Compared with not re-levering, it added about 258 points of stock return per cycle, which works out to 1.57x more money at the end of each cycle. The scorecard (Jan '17 → Oct '26, total USD return): BTC: 84x (57% CAGR) 30% amp, never re-levered: 97x 60% amp, never re-levered: 143x 30% amp, re-levered at bottoms: 157x 60% amp, re-levered at bottoms: 579x (92% CAGR) Amplified Bitcoin smoked Bitcoin in every scenario. Static 60% beat BTC by only 1.7x because the amplification decays to almost nothing. Re-amplifying is the big deal and driver of returns over long time horizons. The three hikes turned 143x into 579x, and the effect is non-linear. A +22.5-point hike (the 30% version) added 1.16x per cycle; a +45-point hike added 1.57x. The bill: $11.1B of preferred means $1.67B a year in dividends, all paid by issuing common. Shares rose 36%, from 100.9M to 137.3M, while BTC held rose 9.6x. That trade works because BTC's cycle returns dwarf a 15% coupon. But this is perfect hindsight. Nobody calls exact bottoms. It assumes buyers will take $9.8B of 15% perpetual preferred at a cycle low. There are no fees or taxes. This is the math based on a historical backtest, not a forecast. The lesson is the amplification on a BTC treasury is tremendously powerful when timed correctly:

2026.10.08 02:15

Bitcoin amplification drives total returns, and amplifying at the right time is tremendously powerful. Let me show you. A good hypothetical... what if a Bitcoin treasury company only added amplification when Bitcoin was cheapest against gold? I backtested it from Jan 2017 to today. Bitcoin: 84x Same company, re-levering to 60% at every BTC/Gold cycle bottom: 579x That's 6.9x better than just holding BTC. Let's take a hypothetical company with a similar setup to Strive's current balance sheet. 29,462 BTC, 100.9M shares, a cash reserve. For simplicity, let's say the stock always trades at 1.5x mNAV. Amplification comes from issuance of a perpetual preferred paying 15% a year. Dividends are paid by selling common stock at 1.5x NAV. Amplification = preferred outstanding ÷ BTC market value The signal is BTC priced in ounces of gold. Every cycle the ratio collapses, then rips. The bottoms: Feb 7, 2019: 2.56 oz (BTC $3,359) Dec 31, 2022: 9.07 oz ($16,530) Mar 1, 2026: 12.22 oz ($65,800) Each cycle bottomed higher than the last. Why add amplification at the bottom? Preferred is a fixed dollar amount, so when BTC runs, amplification shrinks on its own. 60% at the 2019 bottom was about 3% by the 2021 top. The amplification is highest when BTC is cheapest and nearly gone by the euphoria. Max drawdown: −86% for the stock vs. −84% for BTC. At each bottom, the company issued preferred and bought BTC until amplification was back to 60%: 2019: 17.7% → 60%. $105M of prefs, +31,129 BTC 2022: 12.2% → 60%. $1.2B of prefs, +72,418 BTC 2026: 15.1% → 60%. $9.8B of prefs, +149,392 BTC Holdings went from 29,462 BTC to 282,402. Bottom-to-bottom returns: 2019→2022: BTC +387% | stock +843% 2022→2026: BTC +303% | stock +681% 2026→now: BTC +24% | stock +51% The average hike added 45 points of amplification. Compared with not re-levering, it added about 258 points of stock return per cycle, which works out to 1.57x more money at the end of each cycle. The scorecard (Jan '17 → Oct '26, total USD return): BTC: 84x (57% CAGR) 30% amp, never re-levered: 97x 60% amp, never re-levered: 143x 30% amp, re-levered at bottoms: 157x 60% amp, re-levered at bottoms: 579x (92% CAGR) Amplified Bitcoin smoked Bitcoin in every scenario. Static 60% beat BTC by only 1.7x because the amplification decays to almost nothing. Re-amplifying is the big deal and driver of returns over long time horizons. The three hikes turned 143x into 579x, and the effect is non-linear. A +22.5-point hike (the 30% version) added 1.16x per cycle; a +45-point hike added 1.57x. The bill: $11.1B of preferred means $1.67B a year in dividends, all paid by issuing common. Shares rose 36%, from 100.9M to 137.3M, while BTC held rose 9.6x. That trade works because BTC's cycle returns dwarf a 15% coupon. But this is perfect hindsight. Nobody calls exact bottoms. It assumes buyers will take $9.8B of 15% perpetual preferred at a cycle low. There are no fees or taxes. This is the math based on a historical backtest, not a forecast. The lesson is the amplification on a BTC treasury is tremendously powerful when timed correctly: