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Adam Thierer
@AdamThierer
innovation policy analyst at @RSI & senior fellow with @TheFIREorg. Latest books: Permissionless Innovation (2016) & Evasive Entrepreneurs (2020).
参加 December 2008
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Part 2: How will the election results be read by the current White House and other Republican party leaders as it pertains to AI and digital technology more generally? In the longer run, it all depends on who wins the battle for the soul of the future Republican party. There are still pro-growth, pro-innovation forces in this White House, on the Hill, and among state governors and legislators. But the populist, anti-innovation forces on the Right remain quite strong today and many of them – egged on by various anti-tech pundits and activist groups – will read the election results as confirmation that the digital revolution and AI boom just aren't worth it anymore. I suspect JD Vance will lead that charge, and others like Josh Hawley have long been there. Ron DeSantis flirts with this position, too. Meanwhile, who speaks loudly for the pro-innovation perspective in the Republican party today? I am hard-pressed to name innovation champions in the current Republican party. Again, there are some out there, but they keep fairly quiet in the midst of all this unrest and in-fighting in their party. Defending innovation, creative destruction, and uncertain futures has always been hard for politicians. It's always easier to bash new tech as a threat rather than to embrace it as an opportunity. Neophobia (fear of the new), pessimism bias, and status quo preservation have often driven technological resistance among the public and politicians. And that has been true even among some Republican Party leaders through the years. On balance, however, there were usually more Republicans open to the future and new technological opportunities than opposed to them. We may be witnessing a reversal in that regard as an increasingly vociferous block of Republicans and anti-tech conservative activists become more comfortable with the status quo and even extreme solutions usually only floated by the hard Left. Horseshoe theory is real in a sense. To the extent political realignment could happen in modern America, the growing conflict over progress and innovation will likely be a major part of it. Even short of full-blown political realignment, however, such “horseshoe” dynamics will become more evident and politically charged in the age of AI and fast-moving technological change. For Republicans, they will have to make some hard choices and make them soon. But for the reasons I identified in my earlier essay today and other recent writings, I suspect that the stasis mindset prevails and that a great many Republicans throw in the towel on this technological revolution. They will continue to use all the same rhetoric (“Beat China,” “Build in America,” etc), but when it comes time to craft policies to actually build and innovate to accomplish those goals, they will balk and embrace the status quo and stagnationist policies. Or they will just let Democrats push through a viciously anti-tech, degrowth agenda and not do much of anything to stop them.
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