Key here is “if” inflation reading comes in hot — but core cpi is about to fall to the lowest year over year rate in more than 5 years next couple months.
We were on the low side on core cpi when the Iran war broke out, but core cpi is shaping up to be even lower than we forecasted earlier.
FT: "Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at September’s meeting if inflation readings released in coming weeks are hot, and markets ratchet up their expectations for increases in borrowing costs, the people familiar with his thinking said."