Odds of a hike now sit at 92%. Almost a done deal based on CME FedWatch. Futures have started to price a base case of four 25 bp hikes by June 2027. Yet opinion across CT and FinTwit remain mixed. With core CPI slowing down to levels not seen since March 2021 and headline CPI driven by oil, many argue the Fed has no need to raise rates. The other school of thought is that, with long-term yields rising, a hike is needed to protect Fed credibility and rein in yields. Although the actual efficacy of it is debatable. This is one of the most closely watched FOMC meetings this year. If the Fed hikes, 25 bp is not a large move from the current 3.50–3.75% range. What matters is the expected path from here. The Fed’s stance on current conditions, whether more hikes follow, and by how much. Those are factors more important than the immediate decision. Assets re-rate on deviations from what is priced, so a surprise on the future path is what induces volatility.