$BTC monthly is touching the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since the 2022 bear market bottom. I've seen what comes next. The monthly chart is doing something it has only done twice before in this cycle. Both times it resolved violently upward. Price peaked near $109K in late 2025, failed to sustain above the Bollinger midline at $88,781, and has since been walking down toward the lower band sitting at $53,361. What makes this setup particularly interesting is the BB width itself. After a massive expansion through all of 2024 into 2025, the bands are beginning to contract again on the monthly a classic squeeze setup that precedes the next large directional move. The SMA at $88,781 is now acting as resistance above, and the drawn horizontal around the $80K zone confirms where the first real ceiling is on any recovery. RSI at 40.96 on the monthly is approaching oversold territory. The last time monthly RSI hit this level was mid-2022 right before the cycle bottom not a guarantee but worth noting. MACD histogram has been printing red for several months and is now showing early signs of compression, which on a monthly chart is a slow but meaningful signal. Bias is cautiously bullish from current levels. A monthly close above $65K reclaims structure. A close below $53K invalidates the bounce thesis entirely and opens the door to a retest of the $40K range.