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Daniel Jeffries
@Dan_Jeffries1
Author, futurist, and systems architect. Recursively self improving.
参加 July 2012
1.8K フォロー中    43.3K ファン
We'll have some real problems with AI. What technology did we ever create that didn't have some downsides? Road crashes kill nearly 1.2 million people a year and injure 20–50 million more. But people still get in their cars every morning, grab a coffee and drive to work. They cross bridges that could collapse, live in houses that could catch fire and climb into metal tubes that fly them across the ocean but could burn up and break apart. Somehow people manage to get through breakfast without demanding a mathematical proof that nothing bad will ever happen. But AI? Pound for pound, AI is one of the safest technologies ever deployed. Safer than lawn mowers by a massive margin. And yet it causes more deranged and apocalyptic thinking than any other tech in history, with very serious people tell you with a straight face that AI will take over and go HAL with 100% certainty, based on no actual real world evidence whatsoever in the real word except some agents posting to message boards and hacking and that is extrapolated into the Population Bomb. And we've got people screaming that we need to anticipate every possible failure, every misuse, every terrible thing anyone might ever do with it before we're allowed to move forward and make sure it really, really can't possibly go wrong. It's ridiculous. It's worse than that, it's a societal level mass hysteria. Just look at the stats: Waymo reports 94% fewer serious injury or worse crashes than its humans across 220 million autonomous miles. That means self-driving cars are much safer. To the point that we'll probably see human driving made illegal without a special permit within twenty years, maybe faster. But how is that covered? Every single crash is picked apart and screamed about in the news the same way we pick apart the top athletes in the world when they suddenly make a single mistake and loose a match. We take something as close to perfection as is possible in the world and ask it to be even more perfect. We used to have a much better understanding of risk versus reward in history. We accepted that life was uncertain and that things could go wrong but we dared to dream and do things anyway. A generation that demands perfection before we even get out of the gate is a generation who'll watch their children grow up poorer, with less opportunities, as their civilization gets out-paced, out-matched and out-competed by more daring and bold civilizations that blow past them while they're dreaming about a childproof world that will never be.
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