August NFP 162k vs 55K expected & 2m revision of +55K. IMO, odds favor Fed hike on 9/16 as a result. Even if CPI on 9/11 lower than expectations, inflation has been above 2% target for 65 months. Hike could also help cap rising 10/30y ylds which is long-term more important. To me, it is hard to argue that 2% inflation is in fact is a hard target when it has not been there in over 5 years and the last six rate changes have been to cut rates starting 2 years ago. A rate hike is likely to help the Fed’s credibility going forward. Finally, I doubt the Fed wants to risk having to raise rates on 10/28 given US mid-terms are only a few days later on 11/3. Given the political pressure on Fed independence, risking the need to do a rate hike that close to the election is probably something they would like to avoid given the likely political backlash.