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David Zervos
@DavidZervosDC
Counselor to the US Secretary of the Treasury —— (The opinions shared here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Treasury Department)
参加 May 2011
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Some notable @IMFNews forecasts from the past:   •The October 2008 WEO had world growth at 3%. The outcome was the first global contraction in post war history. •The Spring 1997 WEO was upbeat on Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia. They all contracted sharply in 1998 – Indonesia by 13%! •The October 2021 WEO had inflation returning to pre-pandemic ranges by mid-2022, right before the largest inflation shock in 4 decades. •In the largest SBA in Fund history (~$57b), the 2018 program projected a growth rebound and sustainable debt levels. It all ended in default and economic collapse by 2020. •In April 2022 the Fund projected the Russian economy would sink by 8.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. The actual decline in 2022 was around 1.5% and 2023 posted solid positive growth. •In the May 2010 program for Greece, the projected GDP numbers were -4% in 2010 and -2.5% in 2011, followed by a return to positive growth. Instead real GDP fell 25% peak to trough. @KGeorgieva
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U.S. Treasury dismisses IMF debt warning and 'messy' forecasting