February: no frontier model could solve Irregular's hardest exploitation task.
By April: the best one could, occasionally, for ~$2,000.
By June: several could, reliably, for ~$20.
Over the next year, we will likely enter a period where AI's offensive capability outpaces defense at scale.
@dan_lahav and the @Irregular team are truly at the frontier of AI security, as major partners to the frontier labs.
This is the most detailed and thoughtful account of where AI security is today, where it's headed, and what we can do now so defenders don't fall behind.
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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝗱-𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗰𝘆: 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗔𝗜 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗚𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴?
Frontier AI models had a giant performance gain in coding in the Fall of 2025
Then with cybersecurity in April
This is now happening with open-weight models
We are optimistic about the long-term
But outside of a few players, we believe the world is not ready in the short-term
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