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Diiirk
@DiiirkNft
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参加 January 2022
1.6K フォロー中    1.9K ファン
Thesis: solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump might be mispriced because the market is still valuing it on launch-era metrics instead of "second-life" metrics. Most memecoins have exactly one valuation regime: the launch pump, followed by permanent decay. The market has gotten very good at pricing that pattern, everyone knows the curve, everyone sells into it, and tokens that follow it get discounted accordingly the moment they're recognized as "just another launch." The interesting case is what happens to a token that survives past the point where the launch-curve should have killed it. $ANSEM is now months out from its June 2026 launch, well past the typical memecoin half-life, still holding meaningful holder count and multi-exchange liquidity. At that point it's arguably entered a second, different regime: not "new launch riding hype," but "surviving asset with an established base looking for its next catalyst." The market doesn't have a good pricing model for that second regime yet, because so few memecoins reach it. Most analysis frameworks (holder growth curves, launch comparisons, ATH/ATL ratios) are built for phase one and get misapplied to phase two. If that's true, the mispricing opportunity isn't "this will pump because it's hyped" It's "this is being valued with a framework built for tokens in a completely different lifecycle stage than the one it's actually in," and that mismatch is where the actual edge sits.
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