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Doctor Jack
@DoctorJack16
Tesla, SpaceX, emerging tech, health, positivity & sharing of useful knowledge. Figuring out Chapter 2 of life. All posts are not medical/financial advice. 🇺🇸
参加 February 2021
3.7K フォロー中    67.1K ファン
I’ve been seeing a lot of discussion about whether to buy $TSLA or $SPCX with some people even considering selling $TSLA to buy $SPCX. While this is not financial advice, here’s what I am doing and a few things worth thinking through. The first (and most important) question is do you believe a Tesla/SpaceX merger is likely within the next year or two? I believe they will merge mainly because of the strategic overlap in autonomy, robotics, energy, and long-term multi-planetary goals, plus Elon’s control of both companies. That said, I could easily be wrong. If a combination does occur, the long-term difference between holding one or the other shrinks considerably. Assuming you are investing in a taxable account, the next major factor is taxes. Selling $TSLA triggers capital gains tax + the 3.8% NIIT + state/local taxes. The combined rate can easily land in the 30–40% range depending on your situation and holding period (short-term rates are significantly worse than long-term). A useful way to frame the decision is that if you pay ~35% in taxes to switch, $SPCX needs to outperform $TSLA by roughly 54% just to break even on an after-tax basis (before even considering the time value of the tax money that is now gone forever). Note that this tax friction largely disappears inside a retirement account. What am I doing? I am content with my essentially all-in $TSLA position and have not sold a single share to buy anything else. I have always wanted direct exposure to the SpaceX mission for personal/mission-alignment reasons. So I’m using a portion of my retirement brokerage to free up some cash and buy a small $SPCX position. Note that I also added to my $TSLA position during the recent sharp dip. I still find it hard to pass up buying more when it’s on sale. Again, this is not financial advice. The right answer depends heavily on your time horizon, tax situation, conviction on a potential merger, and whether you value mission exposure independently of returns. I’d welcome thoughtful pushback or alternative frameworks. Thanks.
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