Been watching Bessent plug the UST market from every direction.. the sovereign cracks are starting to show: buybacks, defending Yen (raising dollars against USTs instead of BOJ dumping them into the market) plus AI capex arms race is now competing for the same pool of capital
Hard not to be reminded of the the historical parallels Plaza in 1985, joint yen buying in 1998, G7 yen selling after Fukushima in 2011. historical context is diff but whenever Washington enters fx market the spillover is always bigger than fx itself
When the anchor asset of global capital markets, the presumed “safest asset”, needs this much active maintenance, you know something structurally unstable is cooking