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Dovey "Rug the fiat" Wan (hiring)
@DoveyWan
🇨🇳🇺🇸🇸🇬🇯🇵 Founder of @primitivecrypto Thesis: Long substance, short status; Long freedom, short coercion. @DoveyWanCN for 中文 @DoveyAgeX for max health
参加 October 2011
496 フォロー中    138.9K ファン
Honestly dont think Trump side can yield much from Xi's visit. They have neither a stick nor a carrot when dealing with China. Trade Reality: China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US fell, but its total global trade surplus tripled from $351B in 2018 to >$1.2T today. Net-net, China's overall trade position is actually stronger now than when Trump launched his first trade war. Trump's trade war managed to do was accelerate Beijing's push for self-sufficiency and make them far less dependent on the US as a trade partner, effectively making China great again. The table has already turned. Also this time Bessent can't coerce Beijing the way the US bullies Japan or South Korea.They are completely boxed in on both fiscal and monetary policy (especially with a strengthening RMB), burdened by high debt, ongoing wars, and domestic inflation eroding actual purchasing power On the contrary, China faces domestic deflation and ultra-soft demand following the property bubble collapse (with Beijing and Shanghai housing down ~30%, big size purchases tied to home improvement and appliances are cooked). Meanwhile, the domestic purchasing power of the RMB has risen due to massive oversupply and fierce competition among manufacturers. Forcing China to buy excess US imports is the least effective way to fix structural demand, and actually harms domestic supply. Trump has no leverage, no policy maneuverability, and no solution China actually needs 🤷
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