Crossroads(@Dr_Crossroads):There's a fairly wide spread for most somewhat close/contested races in prediction markets vs what we see in the polls. If we see the outcomes come out very differently than the predictions markets are showing, there's a good chance that some were intentionally stacking the deck in favor of one candidate, knowing that these markets are often used in lieu of polls. The good news is it's a self-correcting problem, as this spread between PM and polls would be seen as an opportunity. Tonight will be interesting either way.

Crossroads

@Dr_Crossroads

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参加 May 2017

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Crossroads@Dr_Crossroads

2026.11.04 00:12

There's a fairly wide spread for most somewhat close/contested races in prediction markets vs what we see in the polls. If we see the outcomes come out very differently than the predictions markets are showing, there's a good chance that some were intentionally stacking the deck in favor of one candidate, knowing that these markets are often used in lieu of polls. The good news is it's a self-correcting problem, as this spread between PM and polls would be seen as an opportunity. Tonight will be interesting either way.