I like to think about upcoming 'risk clusters', i.e. a confluence of important macro / micro events in a v short window. They can work for and against you. For ex, an upside EPS surprise can get an extra boost if it coincides w/ a favorable new macro tailwind (akin to a 'double jump', and it's often not priced appropriately in the vol mkt). Similarly, the fear of a 'bad parlay' across events often gives mkts anxiety in the approach. Like having two mid-terms in the same week. June had the latter issue (SPCX, cpi, Warsh + Seasonal momo fear). This dynamic is why today's NFP is more important than it looks. A negative (!) number on the back of a negative CPI, aside from being evidence we live in a simulation 😜, helps soften an upcoming risk cluster: jackson hole => anthropic ipo? => "fed hikes in sept!". And within the print, wages are the part that actually matters for that last leg. The hawkish case rests largely on inflation broadening into second-order effects, and wages are THE canonical second-order driver. AHE at a cycle-low 3.2% and still decelerating says that channel is going the right way. And that's with last year's cuts and the early '26 tax breaks already in the bloodstream! A Sept hike would now mean hiking into negative payrolls, 3.2% wage growth, a soft core PCE month, $77 oil and 2.2% breakevens. Good luck with that!