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Matt Dratch
@DratchCap
Macro Equity PM | Dartmouth Fball ’08 “Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.” Views expressed are solely my own and not on behalf of my employer.
参加 December 2010
317 フォロー中    8.8K ファン
Elon saying lots of memory comes on in China in 2028, yet in Aug he described a compounding 10x supply demand imbalance (below). The Chinese better do a lot of building to matter…. “Then look at the rate at which logic and memory is being produced. One must always consider a limiting factor here. Limiting factor currently is memory. The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now normally, that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry. But ask yourself, is the demand increasing by 20% a year? No. The demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher. So if you’ve got demand increasing much faster than supply, then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases; it does not decrease.”
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