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Matt Dratch
@DratchCap
Macro Equity PM | Dartmouth Fball ’08 “Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.” Views expressed are solely my own and not on behalf of my employer.
参加 December 2010
317 フォロー中    8.8K ファン
Banger from @evergreencap3 🙏🙏🙏 I’d add: - Asian funds hate ✅ - Pods are short ✅ - peak this, peak that ✅ ✅ - “despite being screwed recently on LTAs, all the mgmt teams (and boards) whistled Dixie and signed new ones to get screwed again!” ✅
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Now is a good time to buy memory stocks. If you want to make a bet on AI, the DRAM companies appear to be some of the most disconnected: high growth, high margins (which will stay well above prior peaks if AI demand holds), critical importance to AI workloads (there’s no AI without DRAM), concentrated industry structure, increasingly strategic customer engagements, lack of substitutes, and record capital return, all at valuations that embed a sharp cyclical decline sometime between 2027 and 2028. This is despite companies like Google reportedly expressing interest in locking up memory supply through 2035. Additionally, Elon’s comments yesterday were an incremental positive for DRAM. He said Terafab would start with an SRAM chip slated for volume production in 2H28, which is 2029/2030 in Elon-speak. This implies Terafab is still years away and, importantly, will target a logic process first, not traditional memory/DRAM. I believe this is because he understands how difficult it is to manufacture memory from scratch (especially at competitive yields/economics). Only 4 players do it at scale globally, and all are vertically integrated with proprietary IP. I believe this is also why Elon has been pounding the table so hard on volumes coming out of CXMT. He’s trying to pressure MU/the big 3 to expand capacity too. Ultimately, I think the best outcome for Terafab/SPCX/TSLA and the memory industry is for them to work together. But Terafab is early, as is a lot of what SPCX/TSLA are trying to build, so the DRAM companies are understandably approaching this with care. The worst thing they could do is ramp capacity for the Elon-universe before the actual demand is there and end up oversupplied. Regardless, I hope we eventually see a partnership, especially between Sanjay at $MU and Elon, who were both seated close to President Trump at last month’s superintelligence summit and are both running American companies that are very pro-American AI/SI.
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