Dune(@Dune):Prediction markets already function as a live read on Fed policy. The chart shows implied expected Fed cuts for 2025, Kalshi vs Polymarket, updated daily. The two venues move within a tight band of each other most of the year, with the widest gap opening up around April 2025. That gap, and how fast it closed, could be a signal. Fed-related markets have already passed 2025’s full-year count, rising from 535 in 2025 to 822 so far in 2026. Notional volume is at $984M+ YTD, already 89% of 2025’s full-year total. For a desk running its own rate view, that's a continuous cross-check sitting next to futures and swaps. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune:

2026.08.07 15:00

Prediction markets already function as a live read on Fed policy. The chart shows implied expected Fed cuts for 2025, Kalshi vs Polymarket, updated daily. The two venues move within a tight band of each other most of the year, with the widest gap opening up around April 2025. That gap, and how fast it closed, could be a signal. Fed-related markets have already passed 2025’s full-year count, rising from 535 in 2025 to 822 so far in 2026. Notional volume is at $984M+ YTD, already 89% of 2025’s full-year total. For a desk running its own rate view, that's a continuous cross-check sitting next to futures and swaps. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune: