We published our $MU preview for institutional clients last week. The EPS guidance MU announced today was almost exactly in line with our preview.
Memory supercycle: AI-driven demand is shifting negotiating power toward memory vendors, with CSP customers appearing more passive on both short-term contract pricing and LTA terms. We believe the cycle could peak in 2H27 but remain at elevated levels for some time.
DRAM and HBM pricing: We estimate traditional DRAM prices will rise about 45% in FYQ3, while overall DRAM including HBM rises around 40%. For FY4Q26 and FY1Q27, we model overall DRAM price increases of 27% and 10%, and assume HBM prices at end-CY2027 are 80% higher than end-2026.
Agentic AI demand: Intel and AMD server CPU shipments are expected to grow 30% and more than 50%, respectively, in 2027. Agentic AI workloads require real-time caching of execution states, Chain of Thought steps, tool calls, and agent interactions in system DRAM, adding incremental data center memory demand.
Financial outlook: We forecast FYQ3 revenue of $37bn and EPS of $21.6, above company guidance of $33.5bn ± $750mn and $19.15 ± $0.40. For FYQ4, we project revenue of $49bn and EPS of $30.1; for CY2027, assuming an 80% HBM price hike, Micron revenue could reach $279bn with EPS of $179.2.
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