Hard to know for sure, but this feels right to me.
The alpha isn't in post-training the model; it's in the execution harness and skill layer orchestrating it.
Hard part is the proprietary Evals and modularizing the Skill architecture to give the system incisive judgment and make it feel intuitive to use.
I unfortunately think superforecasting teams who are post training open weight models are going to get modelmogged by frontier labs that are obviously also working on forecasting benchmarks.