Expert-level post. I may have reverse-engineered what
@Strategy is doing with $STRC and $MSTR.
This is not really a “preferred stock” story. It’s a synthetic internal yield curve for capital funding.
The real spread is NOT: STRC yield vs SOFR
The real spread is: MSTR market premium (mNAV) vs STRC funding cost.
Strategy itself has effectively identified ~1.22x mNAV as an issuance floor. But once you layer in an 11.5% STRC funding cost, 1.22x is STILL negative carry.
That means: (1.22 - 1.22) - 11.5% = -11.5%
So the system only works if BTC/share growth (their “BTC Yield”) exceeds the funding drag.
This is why the 10% BTC Yield (increase in ₿PS) target matters so much and is most likely a low number and easy for them to beat.
It’s not a random KPI. It’s a reflexive sustainability threshold.
The actual breakeven appears closer to ~1.33x mNAV:
1.33 - 1.22 ≈ 11.5%
Below that, the curve is inverted.
Above that, positive reflexive carry resumes.
The heat map below is effectively a synthetic sovereign-style funding curve for Strategy.
Red = destructive financing regime
Orange = weak equilibrium
Green = positive reflexive carry
Dark green = convex accretion regime
This is also why mNAV matters far more now than it did a year ago.
Before STRC, mNAV was mostly a valuation metric.
After STRC, mNAV became a funding spread.