Now that X is interested in forecasting the growth potential of AI, it is useful to keep history in mind. According to Robert Gordon, from 1920 to 1970, electricity, the internal combustion engine, sanitation, telecommunications, and other technologies spread throughout the U.S. economy and completely changed how people live. That led to a real GDP per capita growth by about 2.46% per year. So if you expect AI to generate per-capita growth above 5%, you are effectively arguing for a technological transformation roughly twice as large as electricity, cars, telephones, modern sanitation, and larger cities COMBINED. COMBINED! Something to consider while sitting in an electrified house, after driving home in your car, browsing X on your phone from the bathroom. If you think that AI is useful, think about living without any of these.