McCullough: One Currency Signal Is Driving Everything 🔊 Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough opened Monday's edition of The Macro Show with the one signal he weights above all others. "If you locked me in a dark room without any live quotes, but I could only have one, what would I take? I would take what is the dollar doing." The dollar is now bullish trade and trend, up 0.6% over the past month and up a lot last week, most of it against the yen. A firmer dollar is net negative on the margin for gold, emerging markets, and bonds. The two-year yield tells the same story from the other side. "We're at cycle highs for two-year yields because cumulative inflation is at cycle highs." The curve keeps flattening, the short end stays well bid, and the book stays long treasuries and utilities. Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else: