🦔McDonald’s stock is down 23% this year, on pace for its worst year since 2002, as Big Mac sales drop. Analysts now expect profits to shrink for the companies that sell everything from cereal to sneakers, the first time since late 2024, even as the S&P 500 hit a record last week. My Take Spending reports look fine because they aren’t adjusted for prices. People pay more and walk out with less, and more of it goes on credit. The Fed’s own survey last week found almost 1 in 5 families fell behind on a loan payment, so I don’t buy that consumers are strong just because the dollar totals keep rising. Stocks can ignore this for now because AI and oil companies are carrying the earnings. That record came with only about a third of S&P 500 stocks actually trending up, which leaves the whole index leaning on a handful of names. Big banks report this week, and their credit card numbers will say more about regular people than any spending report. I expect card delinquencies to keep climbing and more retailers to cut their holiday outlooks. Hedgie🤗