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The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
Iranian. The Middle East through the lens of oil, markets, and money. This is the only account.
参加 December 2025
92 フォロー中    195.3K ファン
The oil deal with Venezuela does not take US proved reserves from 46 billion barrels to 111 billion. Majority control of 17 fields does not give America 7.1% of the world's oil, does not put it level with the UAE, does not add supply in 2026, and does not replace a barrel lost at Hormuz. EIA proved reserves are volumes recoverable with reasonable certainty from known reservoirs inside the United States. At year-end 2024 that was about 46 billion barrels of crude oil and lease condensate. A lease, a 55% offtake right, or "majority control" of Venezuelan acreage does not move oil across a border on the ledger. Venezuela books it, and already does. Those barrels sit inside its 303 billion. Which makes the 7.1% figure double counting. Venezuela's reserves are already inside the 1.57 trillion world total. Putting 65 billion in the US column counts the same oil twice. Caracas also did not say proved reserves. It said 17 fields with a "proven potential" of 65 billion barrels, which is not a classification that exists under SEC or SPE-PRMS rules. The number has moved accordingly: Axios put a similar field list at over 90 billion, a US official said 63. There is no published agreement, no named operator and no audited reserve report behind any of them. The 17 fields have not been named either. Reuters, which reviewed the list under negotiation, described a mix of undeveloped Orinoco acreage and mature Lake Maracaibo blocks. Orinoco crude is 8–10° API, high sulfur, high metals. It needs diluent, steam and upgraders, plus pipelines and terminals that need billions in repairs first. Venezuela produces roughly 1.1–1.2 million b/d today. The 100-year term does not exist in Venezuelan law. The reformed hydrocarbons law caps mixed companies at 25 years plus a single 15-year extension. These are not the barrels Hormuz carries. The strait moves Murban, Arab Light, Basrah and Kuwait Export, light to medium grades that refineries across Asia and Europe are built to run. Extra-heavy Venezuelan sour is coking feedstock. It competes with Maya and Canadian heavy on the US Gulf Coast. It does not replace a lost Gulf barrel in Ningbo or Rotterdam. Access to future barrels, if the contract holds and the fields get built, is a long-cycle supply story. It is a contract, not a reserve. Only one of those appears on the EIA ledger.
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