Bill Ackman thinks Amazon $AMZN compounds earnings at 24% a year for the next 5 years.
That’s earnings roughly tripling. And it’s why the valuation works, because Amazon isn’t cheap at 27x forward.
If earnings do 2.9x and the multiple compresses all the way to 20x, the stock still doubles.
His thesis has already played out once. When he bought in April 2025, AWS was growing 17%. Last quarter it did 37%, fastest in over 4 years.
The part people miss is the silicon. Trainium and Graviton crossed a $20 billion run rate, and Amazon has locked in 2GW of Trainium capacity for OpenAI and 5GW for Anthropic.
They’re not just renting Nvidia chips anymore.
Tepper, Klarman and Sanders Capital have all been buying it too.