1) it’s simple probabilities: 300m+ shares unlock. Of those, a certain % will automatically sell. The reason people are selling is clear: many employees have 90%+ of their net worth in SpaceX, so they auto-sell a % of it. What is that %? That depends on how high the stock is above IPO price. I estimate it to be 10% or more. Since I am a bull , I use 20% to be in the safe side. That is a few days of selling pressure. 2) the risk if you play this trade to the downside are overriding events - if SpaceX gets good news, the buyers might burn through the selling pressure quicker. Historically, we saw (last time for example) a 3%+ drop and then some more pressure but got through it within a couple of days. But I do think it’s reliable for now. Any market dynamics can worsen or offset, so my me at model is 40-60M additional shares being sold into the market