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J.D.
@Jadzo1_
Coverage, calls, and market thoughts across Japan and the US.
参加 June 2023
469 フォロー中    1.3K ファン
Goldman Sachs: Japan Semiconductors / Electronic Components → GS describes the current cycle as one of the largest and longest in history, with 2027 expectations strengthening and visibility into 2028 improving. Yet sector valuations have compressed to ~17x FY27 and ~14x FY28 earnings as investors increasingly price in the risk of a post-2028 capex slowdown. → Disco (6146): Contract liabilities (primarily customer advances) surged 46% QoQ to ¥73bn, suggesting accelerating order momentum that isn't captured in reported bookings. GS expects advanced packaging, EMIB-T, hybrid bonding and CPO to drive further shipment growth. → Capacity rather than demand is increasingly the constraint. Tokyo Seimitsu (7729) has orders running at ~1.5x production capacity, with meaningful expansion constrained until 2028. GS argues that the key differentiator is increasingly suppliers' ability to convert strong orders into revenue and margin expansion, beyond demand exposure alone.
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