memory narratives running wild!!! the biggest trades I have ever seen are where the market and forward estimates are a mile apart and VOL picks up … most times the estimates are wrong … the forecast is just wrong (market is an amazing discount mechanism) … BUT there are other rare opportunities …where deep work meets conviction in a career changing opportunity - $NOW going public when Gartner said their total revenue opportunity was $900m - $AMZN prior to breaking out AWS -> a small cohort of the NYC mafia did the AWS math and it was so outrageous was hard to believe - $MNST .. competition was going to kill them and had no EPS power - $W … one of the former partners at Adage made a career bet at $35 and was a 10x - $AAPL … anyone remember the Samsung bear case? EPS est just a little Off - $NFLX expanding internationally and launching own content was a battle ground for a long time -> TIGER crushed this trade *many other examples The point is …big trades are extremely uncomfortable … and if you have a unique view… VOL is the toll to be paid TO PAY THE TOLL THOUGH YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO ANSWER TWO QUESTIONS: -what does the price already discount, and where exactly is the market wrong? -what would prove the market right and I am wrong? Apply to MEMORY and you have your map