Jonah Lupton
@JonahLupton
CEO/CIO at @FirstWaveFund, long-biased hedge fund, looking for undervalued growth stocks w/ under-appreciated catalysts, need to see ~3x upside within 3-5 years
参加 April 2008
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Optical stocks having a big day on the back of $MRVL investor day... management is sharing some crazy bullish forecasts for the next 4-5 years.
"In FY2028 we expect $20b in total company revenues, up from the $18b outlook we gave you in August, driven by connectivity. In custom, we expect FY2029 revenues to more than triple reaching at least $12b, putting us well above our prior target. Looking out to FY2031, we see a path to $70b to $90b in annual revenues, with $80b at the midpoint."
Fwiw, if they hit $85b revenues in FY2031 it would be double the consensus revs for FY2031, which is currently at $42.7b
@JensenHuang did say $MRVL would be a $1 trillion company someday... I guess management just laid out the path.
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Lots of bullish catalysts lining up for optical companies... we own a few of them but the one that I believe has the most upside over the next 2-3 years is $AAOI.
After this most recent ATM offering, $AAOI has raised approx $1.7B this year to expand their production facilities in Texas... they're adding ~30 football fields of capacity in order to keep up with demand and hit their targets.
In my base case model, I have $AAOI doing $12 of EPS in CY2028, could easily justify at 40x multiple if not higher given the growth rates and margin expansion... in this scenario $AAOI could easily be a $450+ stock in the next 2-3 years.
In my bull case model, I have $AAOI doing $16 of EPS in CY2028, could easily justify a 45x multiple given growth rates and margin expansion... this is how $AAOI becomes a $700+ stock in the next 2-3 years
If the demand is real then it comes down to execution and their ability to bring capacity online... this team still has alot to prove however they're going to be well positioned to capitalize on this generational growth opportunity.
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