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Kairos Research
@Kairos_Res
Crypto Research Firm
参加 January 2024
2 フォロー中    10.2K ファン
Did quantum and AI cryptography fears wake up dormant Bitcoin? Coins dormant for 7+ years have been waking up faster every year, rising from 10 wallets per day in 2023 to 23 in 2024, 40 in 2025, and 45 so far in 2026, with about 300,000 dormant BTC ($31B) moving in 2025 alone, partly because each year another cohort of coins ages past the 7-year mark. Against that backdrop, we tested six quantum headlines since 2024, including Google’s Willow chip, Google’s ECDSA paper, OpenAI’s math release, and Justin Drake’s “bunker mode” tweet, and found that dormant coins showed no consistent response across them (p = 0.23). October was the one exception, as wallets with exposed public keys, which are the coins most at risk if ECDSA breaks, made up 43% of the wallets waking up compared with 19% normally, but most of that came from a single source, with 76 of the 87 exposed wallets that moved on 10/06 sweeping about 181 BTC ($15M) over the week into wallets created on 09/21 that Arkham’s model tentatively attributes to the Japanese exchange GMO Coin, which looks like an exchange consolidating thousands of old legacy deposit addresses rather than reacting to the headlines. Excluding the GMO Coin sweep, October still ranks in the 96th percentile, although only 41% of the remaining exposed movers sent coins to fresh addresses as “bunker mode” advises, compared with 55% normally, while total dormant BTC moved from 10/06 to 10/13 was just 3,499 BTC ($291M), below a typical week of about 4,100 BTC, as the price slipped from $85.5K on 10/06 to $81.7K today. So far, quantum fear has changed which dormant wallets move, mostly through one exchange sweep (which may have already been planned), while the amount of dormant BTC moving has stayed normal, and the signal to watch is large exposed-key balances moving to fresh addresses, which would show holders actually following Justin Drake’s “bunker mode” advice.
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