FULL INTERVIEW: @asianometry says export controls are a slowing mechanism, not a stopping one, and that kicking Huawei off TSMC in 2017 may have been the mistake that started China's indigenous chip industry. Even if you let them back now, he doesn't think they'd take it. Jon Y (@asianometry) runs Asianometry, the YouTube channel and newsletter on semiconductors and Asian industry. He joined @theojaffee and @schisofrenia to discuss export controls, CXMT, and why he thinks America should copy Chinese industrial policy: 01:45 whether China would be ahead on AI without export controls 04:02 why he'd restrict the equipment rather than the chips 04:26 the case that kicking Huawei off TSMC backfired 06:53 the etch and deposition gap the rules left open 08:30 what CXMT would need to seriously threaten Samsung and Hynix 09:57 why he thinks America should copy Chinese industrial policy 11:24 why the Intel equity stake isn't what he means 13:51 what happened to Qimonda's IP after Germany let it die 15:06 why domestic consumer electronics manufacturing isn't coming back 16:29 the policies that look smart for ten years and then bite you 17:16 how he actually researches and writes the videos 19:03 the $0.05 microcontroller that stopped car production 20:22 what he wants people to take away from the channel 21:08 why chipmaking is remarkably simple, and unchanged for 70 years