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@kevinroose reveals how Dario Amodei looked at GPT-2 in 2019 and saw a path to AGI by adding 8 more zeros to the compute budget:
"The scarce information of the time that was not public yet in 2019 was that scaling was working, and was working in a predictable way."
"He looked at GPT-2 and he said, 'We could add eight more zeros to this. Instead of thousands of dollars of compute, we could train this on millions or billions of dollars of compute, and maybe it would just keep improving steadily.'"
"That was the thing that he knew before anyone else by virtue of running the team that was working on scaling."