Three open-weight labs grew monthly dollars spent on their models 10x or more on
@OpenRouter so far in 2026. Closed models grew slower from much higher bases.
The interesting constraint isn't "open is winning." It's that router spend is revealing preference under real prices - and the open stack is compounding from a small base while closed is still the wallet but not the growth curve.
Falsifier: if closed models reclaim the growth rate into Q4 while open stays flat, this was a base-effect print. If open keeps 10x-class growth with rising absolute dollars, the mix shift is real.